Showing posts with label Fukuda China visit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fukuda China visit. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

The bankruptcy of the China hawks

Sankei's Komori Yoshihisa, arch-conservative and China hawk, has published at his blog a list of complaints about Prime Minister Fukuda's visit to China last week, criticizing the prime minister for failing to criticize China for every perceived and actual failing of the Chinese Communist Party.

Sounding much like his American peers, including the Washington Times's Bill Gertz, who recently made claims about the Pentagon's employing a Chinese translation service compromised by Chinese intelligence that proved "patently false," Mr. Komori thinks that instead of trying to improve the mood in Sino-Japanese relations, Mr. Fukuda should have "referenced, pointed out, criticized, and voiced fears about": the PLA buildup and lack of transparency, the threatened use of force against Taiwan, rogue development of the East China Sea gas fields, the CCP's one-party rule, oppression in Tibet and Xinjiang, copyright theft, toxic products, and environmental destruction. (On this last point, Mr. Komori has the gall to criticize China for prioritizing economic growth and neglecting environmental harm. Seriously? Has he seen what Japan's prioritizing economic growth-above-all-else did to Japan's environment?)

Having failed to harangue China on these fronts, Mr. Fukuda's China diplomacy ought to be like an "air-raid siren" for the Japanese people.

Nowhere in his remarks does Mr. Komori suggest what complaining about these issues would have achieved. It's wholly beyond me how Japan's (or any other country's) berating China will (a) lead to the creation of a multi-party democracy in China, (b) lead Beijing to cancel its relentless "colonization" of Tibet and Xinjiang, (c) lead to China's shifting to "green growth" and inspecting every product leaving China, etc.

This, I think, illustrates the bankruptcy not only of the "contain China" school in Japan, the US, and elsewhere, but also the bankruptcy of the foreign policy thinking of Japanese conservatives.

I recognize that there are genuine problems related to China, but the idea that those problems will be solved if the leaders of neighboring governments just criticize or threaten by way of an encircling security alliance is dangerously absurd. What is it about China hawks that they have an inability to understand mutual interdependence? For better or worse, Japan, the US, and others are bound together with China. The process of making a "responsible stakeholder" out of China will be long and frustrating, with setbacks along the way. This process will demand patient, steady, visionary leadership, not vitriolic, belligerent rhetoric that serves little purpose other than to antagonize China and accelerate arms racing in East Asia.

Meanwhile, this belligerence is about all Japan's conservatives have to offer for Japanese foreign policy. No constructive vision for the East Asian future here, just bluster and fear. They take the same approach to North Korea and the Korean Peninsula in general.

One problem with this approach is that unless Japan rids itself of its security relationship with the US in near future, Japan's conservatives are dependent on the US government's sharing their views on Asia. Japan alone is not in a position to force China to change on any of the issues identified by Mr. Komori as problematic. Any confrontational approach would have to occur in sync with the US, with the US taking the lead. As we have seen in regard to both North Korea and Taiwan under the Bush administration, there is no guarantee that Washington will be on the side of Japanese conservatives even under a bellicose Republican administration. (On the economic front, though, perhaps Mr. Komori and his ilk should hope for a Democratic victory.)

Despite their lack of a concrete and constructive foreign policy agenda — no, the arc of freedom and prosperity does not count — the conservatives will undoubtedly step up their pressure on Mr. Fukuda on foreign policy in the New Year.

And I remain convinced that Dwight Eisenhower was mistaken in his farewell address: the danger is of a military-industrial-media complex, with the media serving the interests of the others by playing up foreign threats and making it appear as if there are no alternatives to belligerence and confrontation. Komori and Gertz are undoubtedly extreme examples of this, but one need not look far to find other examples of press coverage of China that seeks to stoke public fears.

Saturday, December 29, 2007

Fukuda's "catch ball" diplomacy

Fukuda Yasuo is in China, and the contrasts, both with his earlier trip to Washington and Ozawa Ichiro's trip to China, are stunning, if not surprising.

Recall how earlier this month I criticized Mr. Ozawa for his over-the-top visit to Beijing, when he traveled with an entourage of hundreds and spoke in effusive terms about the Sino-Japanese relationship.

I think Mr. Fukuda has made my point about understated diplomacy. Without paying fealty and genuflecting before his Chinese hosts, the prime minister has indicated that he desires a new Sino-Japanese relationship that is treated with as much or greater care as Japan's relationship with the US.

Unlike his thirty-six-hour swing into Washington, Mr. Fukuda has stayed around long enough to make an impression. He met with Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, on Friday afternoon, with the talks focused more on practical matters — economic cooperation, the environment, the "strategic reciprocal partnership" — than on praising the relationship. On Friday evening, Mr. Fukuda met with President Hu Jintao, in which he explicitly said that Japan does not support Taiwanese independence but rejects a unilateral solution to the problem.

On Saturday, Mr. Fukuda played catch with Mr. Wen. (I will not comment on what that might have looked like after seeing pictures of the two old men in throwing position here.) The symbolism of this should not be underestimated. Playing catch, after all, is one of the oft-cited bonds that united President Bush and former Prime Minister Koizumi. (They played catch at Mr. Bush's ranch when first meeting in June 2001.) What a pointed but understated way for Mr. Fukuda to signal to Washington that Japan's priorities are changing, an argument Mr. Fukuda made explicitly when he visited Washington in November.

For the moment, concrete progress on disputed issues is beside the point. This is mood-setting, with its significance depending on Mr. Fukuda's staying around long enough to convert preliminary overtures into a lasting shift in Japanese foreign policy that will bind his successors. But the mood-setting is necessary. Japan is not in a position to choose between Beijing and Washington. It needs frank but cordial relations with both, although the two relationships are obviously different thanks to Japan's security relationship with the US. I remain unconvinced that grandiose rhetoric, which hints at a desire to prioritize the Sino-Japanese relationship to the detriment of the US-Japan relationship, is the way to change the mood in the Sino-Japanese relationship; by going to Beijing more quietly but no less determined to revive the relationship, Mr. Fukuda has, I think, embarrassed Mr. Ozawa yet again.

Now if he could only get certain US presidential candidates to realize that just as Japan has no choice between its largest trading partner and its most significant security partner, so the US has no choice but to maintain healthy relationships with both its long-time ally and trading partner and the emerging power.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Desperate for a win

In the midst of new polls showing that support for his government is waning, Prime Minister Fukuda has announced his plans for traveling to Beijing.

The prime minister will leave for China on Thursday, 27 December, meet with President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on 28 December, and return to Japan on 30 December. As Asahi notes, Mr. Fukuda has a difficult task ahead of him, as Japan and China struggle to resolve the lingering East China Sea gas field dispute and find a way to deepen cooperation on green technology. (On the other hand, what a relief that Beijing and Tokyo are wrangling over these issues rather than not talking or, worse, trading barbs over history.)

Nevertheless, Mr. Fukuda's trip will not be the grand visit that was Mr. Ozawa's: there will be (or should be) fewer speeches and more talks on resolving differences and building a framework for cooperation over the longer term. While a successful summit will by no means solve all of his problems, it could give him some momentum going into the climactic showdown over the refueling mission and the start of the regular Diet session. Whether China will be obliging remains to be seen. As Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura made clear this morning, although negotiations are moving forward at different levels, agreement remains elusive.

These will be decisive weeks for the prime minister. He needs to rise above the fray, to look less harried and more in command of the situation (even if in reality he isn't). His premiership isn't doomed yet, but its shelf life could shorten considerably if he does not begin setting a course for his government. Beijing may be a good place to start.