Tokyo, reversing an LDP landslide?

Tokyo, the center of Japanese political and economic life, is growing more than any other jurisdiction — mostly by drawing people from other prefectures — and sends forty-two representatives to the Diet between its twenty-five single-member districts and its seventeen proportional representation seats.

The LDP won twenty-three of twenty-five SMDS in 2005, with Komeito and the DPJ each taking one. The LDP also won seven seats in PR voting to the DPJ's six. While the LDP has been strong in Tokyo, the LDP and the DPJ were even in 2003, when the DPJ and the LDP each won twelve SMDs, with Komeito taking one. In 2003 the DPJ also equaled the LDP and Komeito combined with eight seats. Having bested the LDP-Komeito coalition in last month's Tokyo assembly elections, the DPJ should be in a position to reverse the 2005 landslide.




Prior to last month's election, it may have seemed consequential that the JCP is running candidates in all twenty-five of Tokyo's districts. But given that the JCP lost ground despite media reports of a "communist boom," the JCP may have little bearing on the outcome on 30 August.

Single-member districts

DPJ safe

The DPJ's one SMD incumbent is Kan Naoto, running in Tokyo's eighteenth district. He will no doubt win reelection this year.
LDP safe

The LDP is likely secure in six seats. In the ninth district, LDP incumbent Sugawara Isshu, running for his third term, faces an inexperienced challenger in the DPJ's Kiuchi Takatane, who is running for office for the first time. The ninth, which includes part of Tokyo's Nerima ward, is one district where the JCP candidate, Kishi Yoshinobu, might be able to throw the election to the LDP: the JCP has received roughly 30,000 votes in the district in the past several elections, not enough to matter in 2005 but decisive in 2003 when Sugawara defeated his DPJ challenger by only 16,000 votes.

In the eleventh district, incumbent Shimomura Hakubun faces a New Party Japan candidate, deputy party head Arita Yoshifu, running with the backing of the DPJ. The JCP's candidate, Tokutome Michinobu, received 31,000 and 35,000 votes in 2003 and 2005 respectively, and the JCP's candidate in the Tokyo assembly elections in the district — which is comprised of Itabashi ward — finished second to a Komeito candidate with 31,000 votes.

In the thirteenth district, LDP incumbent Kamoshita Ichiro, who won the district in 1996, 2000, and 2005 while losing narrowly in 2003, faces DPJ newcomer Hirayama Tairo, running his first race. The JCP may play a factor in Kamoshita's winning: the JCP has taken roughly 30,000 votes in the past two elections, and finished ahead of DPJ candidates in Adachi ward (half of which comprises the thirteenth) last month.

In the seventeenth district, LDP incumbent Hirasawa Katsuei won by nearly 100,000 votes in 2005 and nearly doubled the vote total of his DPJ challenger in 2003. His DPJ challenger in this election is Hayakawa Kumiko, a local assemblywoman in Tokyo's Katsushika ward. Hirasawa should win reelection, although perhaps by a smaller margin this year.

In the twenty-third district, the LDP incumbent, Ito Kosuke, has served nine terms in the Diet and has represented the district since its creation. He won a relatively narrow victory in 2003, however, suggesting that the DPJ could succeed against Ito, despite running political newcomer Kushibuchi Mari. An encouraging sign for the LDP in the district is that the LDP/Komeito vote in the area in last month's Tokyo assembly elections matched the DPJ vote. The JCP, having received 23,000 and 27,000 votes in 2003 and 2005 respectively, could make the difference in the twenty-third.

In the twenty-fifth district, incumbent Inoue Shinji, seeking his third term, may have a close race — he won his seat for the first time in 2003 by 9,000 votes — but in this race he faces the PNP's Masago Taro, running for public office for the first time, and the JCP's Suzuki Osamu. Inoue should be able to win again.

Leans DPJ

The DPJ has the upper hand in eleven districts. The DPJ's candidates in these districts generally share something in common: most of them are defeated incumbents from 2005 looking to regain seats that had previously represented, often for more than one term. In the first district, Kaeda Banri, who defeated incumbent finance minister Yosano Kaoru in 2000 and 2003, will likely retake the seat, perhaps by a wider margin than in previous elections.

In the second district, the DPJ's Nakayama Yoshikatsu, who won this district in 2000 and 2003 after winning it in a by-election in 1999, will presumably defeat incumbent Fukaya Takashi, the LDP candidate defeated by Nakayama in 2000 and 2003.

In the third district, the DPJ's Matsubara Jin, who won the district in 2000 and 2003 and won a PR seat in 2005, will retake the seat from LDP incumbent Ishihara Hirotaka.

In the fifth district, the DPJ's Tezuka Yoshio will battle LDP challenger Sato Yukari, who won in Gifu in 2005 but was turfed out and will instead run in the seat being vacated by the LDP's Kosugi Takashi. Sato may be one of the LDP's glamorous stars, but she is moving into a district in which the DPJ candidate has run in every election since 1996, having won it in 2000 and 2003. Tezuka should win the seat back for the DPJ.

In the sixth district, LDP incumbent Ochi Takao won the seat in 2005 by merely 6,000 votes over the then-DPJ incubment Komiyama Yoko, who had won decisively in 2000 and 2003. Komiyama won a PR seat in 2005, and should win the district again this year.

In the seventh district, the DPJ candidate is rising star Nagatsuma Akira, who won the seat in 2000 and 2003. He lost to LDP incumbent Matsumoto Fumiaki in 2005, but won a PR seat — and should retake the SMD this year.

In the nineteenth district, the DPJ candidate is Suematsu Yoshinori, who won the district in 1996, 2000, and 2003 before being relegated to a PR seat by LDP incumbent Matsumoto Yohei in 2005. Matsumoto won the seat by a mere 5,000 votes, suggesting Suematsu will reclaim the seat this year.

In the twentieth district, the DPJ candidate is Kato Koichi, who won the district in 2000 and 2003 but lost by 5,000 votes in 2005 to the LDP's Kihara Seiji and won a PR seat instead. Kato should regain the seat easily.

In the twenty-first district, the DPJ candidate is Nagashima Akihisa, who won the district in 2003 but lost in 2005 by 11,000 votes to LDP incumbent Ogawa Yuichi. Nagashima will likely retake the seat.

In the twenty-second district, the DPJ's Yamahana Ikuo, who won the seat in 2000 and 2003, lost to the LDP's Ito Tatsuya, who had previously won the district in 1996. Ito, running in the district in 2003, had done well enough to win a PR seat, which suggests that this year's election may be close — but Yamahana should benefit from the national trend to win the seat.

Tossups

In the fourth district, DPJ newcomer Fujita Norihiko will try to unseat LDP incumbent Taira Masaaki, elected for the first time in 2005. A Koizumi child who faced a divided field in 2005, Taira may have a hard time holding the seat against the DPJ.

In the eighth district, the LDP's incumbent is Ishihara Nobuteru, who was already dealt a blow by last month's election results in Tokyo. Ishihara has won the seat comfortably in the past, but the backlash against the LDP will at least make Ishihara work for his reelection this year. He faces SDPJ candidate Hosaka Nobuto, who is backed by the other opposition parties.

In the tenth district, Koike Yuriko will try to hold the seat she won in 2005 as a Koizumi assassin. The DPJ candidate and postal rebel Kobayashi Koki divided the vote, combining for nearly 91,000 votes to Koike's 109,000 votes. Kobayashi has now joined the DPJ and will be running as PR candidate, leaving DPJ newcomer Ebata Takako to run. The JCP's Yamamoto Toshie could make the difference in the race.

In the twelfth district, Komeito leader Ota Akihiro will face an assassin of his own, the DPJ's Aoki Ai (continuing the DPJ trend of using young women to run against older male candidates). Aoki, currently a member of the upper house, previously held a PR seat in the lower house from Chiba and faces a vulnerable heavyweight in Ota: Ota won handily in 2005, but won by just under 5,000 votes in 2003. The JCP's Ikeuchi Saori could make the difference in the race.

In the fourteenth district, the LDP's Matsushima Midori will be seeking her third term. In 2003 she fought a close race with her DPJ challenger, in part because the Conservative Party was also fielding a candidate. In 2005, however, her vote total was just a bit over the amount of votes combined between her and the CP candidate in 2003. Her DPJ challenger this year is Sumida ward assemblyman Kimura Taketsuka.

The fifteenth district features a rematch between the LDP's Kimura Ben and the DPJ's Azuma Shozo. Azuma lost by 11,000 votes in 2003 and by a more substantial margin in 2005, but in 2003 he shared the field with Kakizawa Koji, an independent who received nearly 50,000 votes. Kakizawa Mito, his son, intends to run, but given that he was forced to resign his Tokyo assembly seat after being arrested for driving under the influence, it seems unlikely that he will be a factor in the face.

The sixteenth district also features a race that was close in 2003 due to the presence of an independent candidate. LDP incumbent Shimamura Yoshinobu, a nine-time incumbent, won by 10,000 votes in 2003 and a larger margin in 2005. His DPJ opponent this year is Hatsushika Akihiro, a Tokyo assemblyman, who should benefit from the national trend and the absence of an independent dividing the field further. That said, Hatsushika finished behind the Komeito and LDP candidates in last month's assembly election, suggesting that he might have a hard time overcoming Shimamura.

In the twenty-fourth district, the LDP's Hagiuda Koichi and the DPJ's Akutsu Yukihiko will battle for the third time. Akutsu won the seat against LDP candidate Kobayashi Tamon in 2000, lost by 2,000 votes to Hagiuda in 2003 (winning a PR seat), and then lost by 45,000 votes in 2005. Naturally the JCP's 21,000 votes in 2003 made the difference in a close race. Hagiuda will likely depend on Komeito votes to be reelected. The district, which contains Hachioji city, elected five candidates in July to the Tokyo assembly: the leader was the Komeito candidate, followed by the DPJ candidate, the JCP candidate, and two LDP candidates. The LDP and Komeito candidates combined to receive 107,619 votes; the DPJ candidate received 34,302 votes. With the JCP candidate's receiving 31,316 votes last month (compared with 26,233 in the 2005 general election), Akutsu faces an uphill battle.

Proportional representation

Once again using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's latest polling data, and turnout data from 2005, it is possible that the DPJ will win ten seats, the LDP five, and Komeito and the JCP one each.

The result — based on guesses for the tossups — would be fifteen seats for the LDP, twenty-five for the DPJ, and one each for Komeito and the JCP. The DPJ would not quite equal the LDP's 2005 landslide with this return, but it would nevertheless be an impressive return.

A decisive day?

Although the government parties rallied from behind as the night went on, the LDP and Komeitō failed to recapture a majority of the seats in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, the goal set by the LDP.

NHK has called all but three seats, with the opposition parties currently holding sixty-five, one more than the sixty-four needed for a majority. With no DPJ candidates in contention for the remaining three, it's safe to conclude that the DPJ will finish the night with fifty-four seats, up twenty, making it the assembly's largest party. Komeitō came into the election with twenty-two seats, and may even gain one. The JCP came in with thirteen and will return either seven or eight. The LDP's loss may be as little as nine seats, but those are a huge nine seats.

A couple things of note:

• Despite fears that Komeitō may struggle to get its voters out due to the government's unpopularity, they still turned out for Komeitō candidates. On a bad night, this result is good news for the coalition. Or not: just because they came out for Komeitō candidates does not mean that they will show up for LDP candidates in the general election (or that they showed up this time).
• Communist boom? Not in Tokyo. Perhaps this result augurs well for the DPJ, which gained as much at the expense of other opposition parties as it did at the expense of the LDP.

The ball is in your court, Mr. Asō.

The LDP falls in Tokyo

As of this writing, the DPJ has surpassed the thirty-eight it held before the election, winning forty-two seats. It is twenty-two short of a majority, with seventy-six remaining. (Sankei is updating results here; Asahi is here.)

The DPJ will become the largest party in the Tokyo assembly, and given the disparity in the early results, it is hard to see how the LDP and Komeitō will retain a majority between them.

Ishihara Nobuteru, head of the Tokyo party, decided not to wait for all the results before apologizing to party supporters, attributing the results to "confusion" in the national party.

These are historic times.

Uh oh

NHK reports that turnout exceeded fifty percent. I can't imagine that's good news for the government.

On the eve of destruction?

The denizens of Tokyo have started voting for representatives to the metropolitan assembly, and the LDP is already explaining away a defeat. Turnout may be up compared with 2005, which, as Jun Okumura notes, bodes ill for the LDP and Komeitō.

Appearing on TV Saturday, Hosoda Hiroyuki, the LDP secretary general, said that the election will have no impact on national affairs, the LDP's refrain throughout the string of defeats in local and prefectural elections. Similarly, Prime Minister Asō, returning to Japan from the G-8 summit in Italy, stressed that of course he wouldn't resign if the coalition loses its majority in the Tokyo assembly.

I do not doubt Asō's resolution to stay. And he is far from friendless in the LDP — even Masuzoe Yoichi, dubbed his most likely challenger by the media, has backed off from open criticism, and Ishiba Shigeru, another potential challenger in his cabinet, recently voiced his support for the prime minister. Whatever unease the LDP's chieftains feel about having Asō as the face of the party in the general election, none seems to be excited at the prospect of a party leadership election before a general election. And why should they be? Rather than enabling the LDP to rid itself of Asō, a party election at this point would serve only to air the LDP's internal divisions even more than they are already being aired. There is some hope within the LDP that Asō will leave voluntarily, but it would strike me as uncharacteristic for the prime minister to bow out willingly.

And Asō still has his nuclear option, the power to call a general election. Yomiuri reports that the prime minister will base his decision regarding the general election on the returns in Tokyo. Regardless of whether the coalition wins or loses power in Tokyo, the election could impel Asō to call an early election. If the coalition wins, he may want to call an early election to take advantage of the temporary shift in the government's favor. If the coalition loses, he may want to call an early election to undercut the anti-Asō movement within the LDP. The question then is how the reformists will react to having no choice but to contest the election under Asō's leadership. Shukan Bunshun suggests that the reformists are thinking about contesting the election with their own manifesto, making them a virtual new party.

How likely is this outcome? I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

The LDP has exhausted its credit with the Japanese people

Asō Tarō and the LDP failed in the first of two electoral challenges that will precede the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the forthcoming general election.

Kawakatsu Heita, the DPJ-backed candidate in the Shizuoka gubernatorial election, defeated Sakamoto Yukiko, the LDP- and Komeitō-backed candidate, on Sunday, this despite a split in the DPJ vote in Shizuoka. The DPJ, of course, feels the wind at its back as it looks to Sunday's Tokyo assembly elections. Polls in advance of the Tokyo vote show that the DPJ may well succeed in becoming the largest party in the Tokyo assembly. Mainichi has the DPJ leading the LDP 26% to 13%, another 6% for Komeitō, and 43% undecided. But 55% of respondents said they would consider using their vote to judge the Asō government, which provides a hint to how those 43% might vote Sunday. Yomiuri finds that the DPJ enjoys a similar lead over the LDP, 29.4% to 16.9%, with another 5.1% for Komeitō. Asahi's poll also found undecideds leaning to the DPJ.

The DPJ has every reason to feel that its time has come.

Meanwhile, Asō, in Yomiuri's words, stands at the edge of a cliff. The prime minister, reacting to the news, said that the Shizuoka defeat does not mean that the LDP will lose in Tokyo Sunday — and once again stressed that regional elections have no import for national politics. The Shizuoka branch of the LDP thinks differently, blaming the defeat on the anti-government mood growing throughout Japan. What will be his excuse if the LDP and Komeitō lose Sunday? How many regional elections does the government have to lose before it has an impact on national politics? How many times do the voters have to opt for DPJ-backed candidates before the government will recognize these votes as directed at the LDP-Komeitō coalition? Perhaps Asō's excuse for an LDP defeat in Tokyo will be on account of his absence from the campaign trail, as he is now in Italy for the G8. (Although, come to think of it, his absence may give a bump to LDP candidates...)

We are, blow by blow, witnessing the end of LDP rule. The truce that was supposedly declared between the reformists and the traditionalists was remarkably short-lived: Nakagawa Hidenao was on TV Sunday calling once again for Asō's resignation. Resigning, Nakagawa maintains, is the honorable thing to do. Honor? What honor is there for the LDP in pushing Asō out of the way and elevating a new leader just in time to contest an election?

I think that Nakagawa and the reformists are increasingly beginning to recognize the position they are in: even with a change of leader their position within the LDP is likely to be greatly diminished. There are simply too many Koizumi children holding vulnerable seats (and often facing the DPJ candidates they bested in 2005, meaning that they are facing experienced challengers.) If they manage to influence the drafting to the manifesto, however, and the LDP manages to somehow scratch out a victory, the manifesto becomes a means to hold the LDP leadership accountable, even if the leadership does not come from the ranks of the reformists.

But more than that, the reformists are facing a situation in which they will lack bargaining power with the DPJ should they decide to leave the LDP after the election. If the DPJ wins a majority, it will have little need for LDP defectors. It presumably won't spurn them if they want to join the DPJ, but the defectors won't receive any special treatment from the DPJ. (I can imagine, though, that some DPJ members would be particularly reluctant to let a raft of LDP defectors join the party, thereby strengthening the Maehara group.)

Accordingly, it makes good political sense for the reformists to do what they can to improve the LDP's chances in the general election. Even if the LDP doesn't win, a better-than-expected LDP performance that deprives the DPJ of a majority gives the reformists bargaining power in case they decide to break loose from the LDP. I don't doubt that the reformists think they are sincere about changing the LDP, but how long will they continue to fight a losing struggle within the party? To what extent will they join with LDP members like Yosano Kaoru, who criticized the DPJ's manifesto as "virtually criminal" in its neglect of reality? If the reformists go to far in their criticism of the DPJ — and Nakagawa has certainly strayed in this direction already — they will make it that much harder to join the DPJ should they find the LDP inhospitable after an election.

But I think it is time for the reformists to drop the pretense that the way to change Japan is to change the LDP. Maybe Koizumi had it backwards: change Japan, change the LDP. In other words, it may take another party — for now the DPJ — to implement the political, economic, and administrative reforms that the LDP failed to enact, and in doing so the LDP will change as well in response to the new political environment.

Tokyo election open thread

I was walking in Takadanobaba this afternoon and noticed a keijiban for the Tokyo election. As I looked over the candidates, I was having trouble finding the poster for the LDP candidate, which struck me as odd. After looking carefully at the posters, I finally found him.

Why was it so hard to locate the LDP candidate?


Because the name "LDP" was written in the smallest possible font while still being visible. The tiny light blue writing in the lower right hand corner, beneath the "ichi" in the candidate's name, is the sole indicator of the candidate's party affiliation.

The logo on the DPJ candidate's poster was small, but was still recognizable as the DPJ's logo. Here are the two posters — conveniently next to one another — for comparison.



With that story for an introduction, I am making this an open thread for things seen and heard during the campaign for the Tokyo assembly. Post your stories in the comments. And if you have good pictures, send them along and I'll post them on the blog.

The Tokyo election truce

The campaign for the 12 July Tokyo assembly election officially began Friday, marking the beginning of what could be the Asō government's last stand.

The prime minister and his supporters are, of course, doing everything they can to dismiss the notion that Asō Tarō's fate somehow rests upon the party's performance in the Tokyo election, even while they lower the threshold for victory in the election to a simple majority for the LDP and Komeitō combined. Asō's refrain remains that the local is local, and the national is national, and never the twain shall meet — but given Asō's fragile position, the slightest blow can be what makes the difference in whether he survives to the LDP in a general election. The Tokyo party continues to insist that it is in control of the situation, that the national party's concerns are overblown. The LDP's majority in Tokyo, the local party maintains, rests on more than the position of the national leadership.

The DPJ has explicitly argued the opposite, making its slogan in the campaign "Change Tokyo, Change Japan."

Given the role played by the national party leaders and the national media in this campaign, it will clearly have ramifications beyond who controls the Tokyo assembly. This election is a crucial test of whether the Asō LDP has the slightest possibility of retaining the urban seats the LDP won in significant numbers in 2005, seats occupied largely by the reformist LDP members openly challenging the Asō government. If the LDP can win in Tokyo under Asō, it will go a long way to lifting the pressure on his leadership.

To that end, his reformist opponents have declared a truce in the war to overthrow the prime minister before he can call a general election. Representative Yamamoto Taku, collecting signatures within the LDP for a petition demanding that the party move its presidential election to before the general election, has announced that he will exercise self-restraint in the week leading up to the Tokyo election. Sankei reports that there is indeed a truce in the struggle, but suggests that it is nothing more than a truce — there is no hint that a lasting peace is in the works. The party's elders would of course love nothing more than a peace treaty before a general election, and are now working to delay a dissolution not only until after the Tokyo election and Asō's trip to Italy, but until after the Emperor and Empress return from a two-week trip to Hawaii and Canada that ends on 17 July. By then the party expects that remaining legislation will have passed the Diet. What is not clear to me, however, is why senior LDP leaders think that delaying the dissolution and the general election will be a cause for peace within the party. Presumably the more time the reformists have before an election, the more time they have to demand Asō's resignation and to make demands about the contents of the party's manifesto. In the best LDP fashion, the party has decided to postpone official discussion of the manifesto, pushing back the creation of a manifesto project team. The longer the delay, the more time the reformists will have to question the leadership. Nakagawa Hidenao has suggested the possibility of drafting a separate document, even as he said that he wouldn't leave the LDP (yet) — reinforcing the idea that the LDP is divided in all but name. Drafting an independent manifesto would of course help the reformists distance themselves from the prime minister, but even and especially if it helped more Koizumi children get reelected, it would only be setting the stage for a continuation of the intra-party fight after the general election.

The choice for Asō, in other words, is bleak. Win on the 12th and the pressure to delay the general election and accelerate the party election may recede, but the fight over the manifesto will intensify. Lose on the 12th and the pressure on Asō to resign or, failing that, on the party leadership to accelerate the LDP presidential election will grow inexorably. And to take Asō's own words, the local is the local. An LDP victory on 12 July will say little about the party's prospects in a general election.

There may be a truce in the LDP, but the worst fighting is yet to come.

Protesting too much?

In a short span of time, Prime Minister Asō Tarō, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura Takeo, and LDP Secretary-General Hosoda Hiroyuki rejected the attempt by Asō's opponents to link the LDP's performance in the July 12 Tokyo assembly election to Asō's future as LDP leader.

At a press conference Wednesday, Kawamura echoed Hosoda in insisting that there is no connection whatsoever between the LDP's performance in local elections and the prime minister's future as party leader: "The Tokyo assembly election is the Tokyo assembly election."

Speaking with the press Wednesday, Asō stated that regional elections and the general elections are completely distinct and therefore there should be no talk of his taking responsibility via resignation should the party perform poorly in Tokyo.

Of course, it is hard to square this position with the prime minister's decision to visit with all of the LDP's candidates for the Tokyo assembly, something that Asō's allies and opponents have noticed. Undoubtedly it will take more than this trio asserting that there is no link between the two elections to dispel this scheme for how Asō can be edged out with minimal confrontation within the party. This in turn raises the possibility that Asō will follow Koga Makoto and opt for a 12 July double election.

Time for a mercy killing

After a brief period of buoyancy, the bottom has finally fallen out of the Asō government.

In addition to the drops below twenty percent approval in the Mainichi and Kyodo polls, the government's approval rating dropped 8.7% to 17.5% in the Sankei poll, with its disapproval rating rising ten points to 70.6%, a poll in which respondents favored the DPJ over the LDP by nearly twenty points and in which nearly fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for the DPJ in proportional representation voting in the forthcoming general election.

As has often been the case in recent years, poor public opinion polls tend to trigger (or exacerbate) snowball effects within the LDP. Party elders like Mori Yoshirō go public with their concerns about the viability of the government and begin talking about ways to fix the government, usually by discussing a cabinet reshuffle. Accordingly, Machimura faction leaders, including Mori, former Prime Minister Abe Shinzō, and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura Nobutaka met Tuesday evening to "exchange opinions" on a cabinet reshuffle, a reshuffle that if it were to occur would surely rank as one of the most meaningless cabinet reshuffles ever. It is unclear to me that reshuffles are an effective way to reverse a decline in support for a government, especially for recent LDP governments. After all, the public's problems with recent governments have had little to do with the cabinet lineups. Rather, the LDP has so few tools at its disposal to deal with public disapproval that LDP members look to the cabinet reshuffle out of a desire to "do something" about public discontent. To his credit, Prime Minister Asō has given no sign that he is considering a reshuffle.

Meanwhile, party reformists and wakate giin rusih to distance themselves from the unpopular prime minister, while intensifying calls for accelerating the party's presidential election scheduled for September so that dissatisfied LDP members could replace Asō Tarō with someone better able to lead the party in a general election. Of course, it is not entirely who could save the LDP at this point — or who wants a chance to save the LDP at this point. Hosoda Hiroyuki, the LDP secretary-general, has dismissed the idea of moving up the party election, but the prime minister's opponents continue to scheme for a way to dump Asō. The latest idea is to tie the prime minister's future to the LDP's performance in next month's Tokyo assembly election. An unnamed member of the LDP executive has stated that if the LDP does not remain the assembly's largest party, Asō should step down. Hosoda has also rejected this idea, but there is little question that the 12 July Tokyo election is taking on considerable importance for both the LDP and Komeitō as a test of the coalition's ability to win urban electoral districts that were critical to its 2005 landslide, especially following the LDP's losing streak in recent municipal elections.

Interestingly, Koga Makoto suggested this week that he supports a July 12 general election, which I suppose would be one way to avoid the turmoil that would follow a disastrous performance in the Tokyo elections. Komeitō is of course opposed to this idea, but this is a good reminder that Asō still has the trump card in the battle with his own party, the prime minister's right to dissolve parliament and call an election.

Kato Koichi said Tuesday that an early election would be suicidal, but at this point I have to wonder whether it wouldn't be a mercy killing. While the Asō government claims to have important business to attend to, at this point nothing is more important than holding an election, which will hopefully result in a government with greater legitimacy and a greater ability to act on policy than the current coalition government. And while Kato says an early election would be suicide, it is unlikely that an election at term's end will be any less fatal to the Asō government and the LDP-Komeitō coalition government more generally. The interesting question now is whether the general election will be fatal to the LDP itself.