Abe's underwhelming victory

Abe Shinzō's LDP-led coalition with Komeitō got its wish Sunday, winning enough seats to retake control of the House of Councillors for the government and ending the "twisted" Diet for at least the next three years. With five seats still undecided, the LDP and Kōmeitō have secured 134 seats, comfortably over the majority threshold of 122 seats.

But it is difficult to declare Sunday's results an strong mandate for Abe and his program.

First, the LDP fell short of winning an outright majority. The LDP is once again the largest party in the HOC, but it will still need to secure the votes of Kōmeitō to pass legislation in the upper chamber. It is unclear what threats Kōmeitō can wield to modify the government's behavior — I doubt whether it can credibly threaten to leave the coalition — but since they wield the deciding votes in the HOC, they will be in a position to influence the government's agenda, which will likely have consequences for nuclear energy and constitution revision. One could argue that Kōmeitō was the real winner on Sunday.

Second, the pro-revision parties fell short of a supermajority. The pro-constitution revision parties needed to win at least 162 seats to be in a position to pass constitutional amendments in the HOC. Given that the pro-revision parties don't even share the same vision for the constitution, the road to revision is no less steep today than it was before the HOC election. That doesn't mean Abe won't try to cobble together some kind of revisionist alliance in the HOC, but I think the pattern I outlined in May will hold:

At the very least, we're probably seeing the emergence of what will likely be a persistent pattern should Abe remain in power. Abe and his lieutenants will talk about the need to revise the constitution, Kōmeitō will express its unease about revision, what's left of the left wing will sound the alarm, public opinion polls will reveal skepticism about revision, LDP grandees will suggest backing down...and rinse and repeat.

It is difficult to view the HOC election as public endorsement for a shift to the right.

Instead, we should view the HOC election as a sign that the Japanese political system is not "stable" or healthy. There is an emerging narrative that because the Abe government looks durable, the Japanese political system has achieved some stability after years of turmoil and ineffectual governments.  Abe may well be in a position to last, although we won't really know until he actually has to make a controversial decision (about, say, TPP or nuclear power or the consumption tax). But the election returns suggest that these will be trying years for Japanese democracy. The DPJ has more or less imploded, and seemed to spend more time during the campaign fighting amongst itself than against the government. The Communists soaked up anti-Abe protest votes and won eight seats, including three district seats, but the ability to win protest votes does not necessarily make for an effective opposition party. As Michael Cucek noted before the election, none of the opposition parties has anything constructive to say about the problems facing Japan. Abenomics is winning public support at least in part because it's the only policy program on offer. Kōmeitō is basically left being the opposition-in-government. I think there are votes for a center-left program, but no party or leader has articulated one in simple, easily understood terms. Whether a coherent, effective large party can emerge from the DPJ's wreckage is one of the most important questions in Japanese politics in the years to come.

Finally, policy challenges remain. With control of both houses, Abe has no excuses. He cannot hide behind the "twisted Diet" any longer. He is going to have to deliver results and make decisions with the potential to trigger major public opposition. The media, of course, will be waiting to pounce at the first sign that the government is slipping — to say nothing of Abe's rivals within the LDP. The public is still opposed to nuclear restarts and is still opposed to raising the consumption tax next year. While the public as a whole supports Japanese participation in TPP, the LDP still includes an unwieldy mix of representatives from across the country, suggesting the possibility of a postal privatization-like confrontation between the urban and rural wings of the party.

In short, the HOC election was not nearly as transformative as it may seem. By failing to win an independent majority in the HOC, the LDP will continue to depend on Komeitō to pass legislation. But by winning a majority for the coalition, Abe will now be expected to use his political power to follow through on his pledge to revitalize Japan's economy — with the public, the media, and rivals within the LDP ready to turn on him should he falter.

The final numbers

The DPJ finished with 308 seats (221 SMDs, 87 PR), the LDP with 119 seats (64 and 55), Komeito with 21 (all PR), the JCP with 9 (all PR), the SDPJ with 7 (3 and 4), PNP with 3 (all SMD), YP with 5 (2 and 3), NPJ with 1 (SMD), Suzuki Muneo's micro-party won 1 PR seat in Hokkaido, and 6 independents won SMDs.

The DPJ does control a supermajority with the help of its likely coalition partners, but that won't matter much.

The DPJ swept eight prefectures, but not Hokkaido as I reported while live-blogging last night: Iwate, Fukushima, Yamanashi, Niigata, Nagano, Aichi, Shiga and Nagasaki.

The DPJ can win a majority — but what will it mean?

Having tabulated the predictions made over the course of my election handbook, I think it's appropriate that I return and answer my initial question.

Can the DPJ win an absolute majority?

Based on my district-by-district predictions, I think the DPJ could win 279 seats, the LDP 159 seats, Komeito fifteen seats, the JCP and PNP seven seats each, the SDPJ five seats, Your Party three seats, LDP-affiliated independents three seats, and small parties (affiliated with the DPJ) two seats.



In other words, the DPJ would gain 167 seats, the LDP would lose 144 seats, Komeito would lose sixteen seats, the JCP would lose two seats, the SDPJ would lose two seats, the PNP would gain two seats, and the number of independents and representatives from small parties would fall by two.

Before I go into the implications of the DPJ's winning so substantially, it was worth recalling the words of the great philosopher Yogi Berra (or, alternatively Niels Bohr — what a pair): "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." The number 279 is not in and of itself important. I suspect that my figure is probably the upper bound of a range in which the DPJ will likely win, and there is still time for the LDP to retake seats on the margins. What I think my survey suggests is simply that by looking at the race from the bottom up, it does seem likely that the DPJ will exceed the 240 seats needed for an absolute majority.

Given that the DPJ is already committed to a coalition government, however, the symbolic importance of a DPJ victory may be more important than its importance for a DPJ-led coalition, although the DPJ would presumably have more bargaining power with its coalition partners having a majority of its own. If the DPJ wins as decisively as my estimate suggests, it will truly mark the end of the LDP's permanent rule. Unlike in 1993, there will be no doubts about the public's having voted for "change." The DPJ will have a mandate. What that mandate means may, as I previously suggested, be unclear, but the DPJ will have the power to act, forcing its rivals to reconsider how best to oppose a ruling party with this level of support.

At the same time, however, the public will expect the government to act. Having an absolute majority will likely mean higher expectations for a DPJ government, its lack of a majority in the upper house notwithstanding. Of course, the higher expectations that will accompany a DPJ majority will make the July 2010 upper house elections even more important to the government.

In short, a DPJ majority could be both a blessing and a curse: public affirmation that the DPJ has arrived as a ruling party, accompanied by expectations that the DPJ do something with its mandate. Indeed, arguably at least one factor in the LDP's likely defeat will be that it squandered the mandate it received in 2005. That should be a warning for the DPJ.

What, meanwhile, would this outcome mean for the LDP? Naturally it will mean a certain amount of disarray, with faction chiefs and other party leaders losing their seats. The factions have already seen a precipitous decline in their influence within the party in matters other than the selection of sub-cabinet officials. Would a landslide defeat that includes losses by several faction leaders be the final blow to the influence of factions, as the LDP's survivors reorganize themselves along more ideological lines? After a general election the fight in the LDP will be to determine who should be nominated to run in the next general election, presumably a fight between traditionalists in places like Kyushu and Shikoku who think that the party needs to return to its roots and Nakagawa Hidenao and survivors from urban districts who think that the defeat shows why the party has to focus on winning in places other than Kyushu and Shikoku. Does anyone think that the factions would play the leading role in determining who will get the LDP's endorsement in single-member districts?

In the nearer term, the same question goes for the campaign for the party's leadership, which will be held in the weeks following the election? Especially given the breakdown in recent party elections, does anyone think that the forthcoming LDP presidential election will be decided along factional lines?

If the LDP indeed loses as badly as it appears it will, the fight within the LDP for the soul for the party will be brutal and protracted. Ozawa may not need to do anything to help the LDP tear itself to pieces. It will likely emerge stronger from defeat, but it will not be the same LDP. In the end, the LDP may find itself looking for candidates like the DPJ's this year: younger, a bit more female, and perhaps some bureaucratic experience (but not too much) or else backgrounds in finance or the media. It will certainly have no problem saying no to a DPJ government.

Kyushu, a conservative bastion

This is the eleventh and final installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The Kyushu regional block contains thirty-eight single-member districts spread over eight prefectures: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, and Okinawa. The block elects an additional twenty-one representatives through proportional representation, for a total of fifty-nine seats.

The region's major population center is Fukuoka, which constitutes roughly a third of the region's population, with the rest of the region's prefectures being roughly equal in population. The region's economic profile is mixed, including agricultural production suiting that region's sub-tropical climate and heavy industry in northern Kyushu. It was once a major mining center, home to Aso Mining, the family business of Prime Minister Aso Taro.

Along with Shikoku and Chugoku it has been a historically important electoral base for the LDP.

In 2005, opposition parties won seven SMDs, four of those being won by DPJ candidates. Meanwhile the LDP won twenty-five seats and Komeito won six. In PR voting, the LDP won nine, the DPJ seven, Komeito three, and the SDPJ and JCP one each. In 2003, the LDP won twenty-six seats, Komeito one, and the opposition parties eleven, with the DPJ winning eight.

However, opposition parties in five of the region's single-member upper house districts in 2007, suggesting the possibility of DPJ gains in the region.

Fukuoka

In Fukuoka in 2005, the LDP won nine seats and Komeito and the DPJ one each.

The DPJ's Matsumoto Ryu (first district) should easily win the district in which he has won every election since the first election under the new system in 1996.

Meanwhile LDP candidates are likely safe in two districts: Aso Taro (eighth district) and Takeda Ryota (eleventh district). Given that Aso is acting as if his seat is vulnerable — he is declined to run simultaneously as a PR candidate — perhaps I should not list his seat as safe, but I think that Aso will not join John Howard as a leader who loses his government and his constituency in the same election. DPJ candidate Yamamoto Gosei may put pressure on the prime minister — he'll be helped by the absence of a JCP candidate — but I expect Aso will win. If he doesn't, perhaps these predictions are the lower bound for the DPJ's performance on 30 August.

Takeda, who after three attempts finally won a seat in 2003 as a conservative independent who joined the LDP in 2004 only to leave it in 2005 as a postal rebel and win the district as an independent once more, will run as the LDP's candidate this year. He faces the SDPJ's Yamaguchi Haruna and JCP candidate Yamashita Tomiko. The fight will be over the 78,000 votes received by Yamamoto Kozo, the LDP candidate in 2005. Takeda will likely win.

But otherwise LDP candidates across Fukuoka are vulnerable. In the second district, Yamasaki Taku, an LDP faction leader, has profited from divided fields in 2003 and 2005 to win reelection. In 2000, the last time the field included only a DPJ candidate and a JCP candidate (as it does this year) Yamasaki lost by 10,000 votes. Yamasaki is high on the list of LDP heavyweights likely to go down to defeat, bested by DPJ newcomer Inatomi Shuji.

Ota Seiichi in the third district may be even more vulnerable than Yamasaki: in 2005 Ota defeated Fujita Kazue, this year's DPJ candidate and winner of the district in 2003. Fujita will likely win again.

In the fourth district the DPJ may benefit from the absence of a JCP candidate, as JCP candidates received around 15,000 votes in the past several elections, turning what would have been close races into comfortable victories for LDP incumbent Watanabe Tomoyoshi. This time DPJ candidate Koga Takaaki has the field to himself, and could emerge as the winner as a result.

Similarly, in the fifth district DPJ candidate Kusuda Daizo will try for the third time to unseat LDP incumbent Harada Yoshiaki. Harada won by 35,000 votes in 2005, 25,000 in 2003, when Kusuda won a PR seat. But in 2003 Harada shared the field with candidates from the JCP and the SDPJ, who combined for 30,000 votes, enough to swing the election to Harada. This time Harada won't have help from other opposition parties.

Also vulnerable is Hatoyama Kunio, DPJ leader Yukio's brother, who parachuted into the sixth district in 2005 and defeated DPJ incumbent Koga Issei. Koga lost by 22,000 votes and won a PR seat, with a JCP candidate taking 11,000 votes. The absence of a JCP candidate should help Koga, but for his part he is publicly skeptical of his chances, citing the press Hatoyama received due to his departure from the Aso cabinet. Hatoyama may hold on to win.

A third LDP faction leader — besides Yamasaki and Aso — is up for reelection in Fukuoka, Koga Makoto in the seventh district. Like Aso, Koga has declined to run simultaneously as an SMD and PR candidate. Koga faces the DPJ's Noda Kuniyoshi, who previously served as mayor of Yameshi city — and no other candidates. The JCP, for example, took nearly 20,000 votes in 2005, which made little difference in 2005 but could be decisive this year, especially since Koga's vote total has fallen gradually since 2000. Like Yamasaki, I think Koga will lose.

The DPJ may have an even easier time in the ninth district, which until 2005 had been represented by Kitahashi Kenji, first elected in 1996 as an NFP candidate and reelected in 2000 and 2003 as a DPJ candidate. He lost by 15,000 votes in 2005 and won a PR seat, but resigned to run for and win the mayoralty of Kita Kyushu city. In his place the DPJ is running Ogata Rintaro, a former foreign ministry official. Given the DPJ's history in the district, I suspect Ogata will win against LDP incumbent Mihara Asahiko.

Finally, in the tenth district LDP incumbent Nishikawa Kyoko faces the DPJ's Kii Takashi, who first ran in 2003 and finished 12,000 votes behind the LDP's Jimi Shozaburo. Jimi left the party as a postal rebel in 2005 and finished second behind Nishikawa with 65,000 votes, 5,000 votes ahead of Kii. The JCP is running a candidate again, but the SDPJ, which received 10,000 votes in 2005, is not. If Kii can take the bulk of the votes received by Jimi in 2005, he should win the seat.

The DPJ should do very well in Fukuoka, winning at least eight of eleven seats.

Saga

In 2005, postal rebels won two of three seats, with the LDP winning the third. As the postal rebels have returned to the LDP, the LDP is defending all three seats in the prefecture.

In the first district, DPJ candidate Haraguchi Kazuhiro has run in each of the four elections since 1996, winning in 1996 as an NFP candidate and 2003 as a DPJ candidate, and losing in 2000 and 2005 as a DPJ candidate but returning as a PR representative. In this race he faces Fukuoka Takamoro, the victorious LDP candidate from 2005 who Haraguchi defeated in 2003. Haraguchi should return as the SMD representative.

In the second district, 2005 postal rebel Imamura Masahiro returns as the LDP candidate facing Oogushi Hiroshi, the DPJ candidate from 2005 who lost by 15,000 votes and won a PR seat. The question in the second district is what will happen to the 35,000 voters who supported LDP candidate Dokai Chiaki in 2005: do they vote for the party or for the policy line, and if so, which policy line? Imamura could hold on to his seat.

The third district features, in addition to the LDP's Hori Kosuke — another postal rebel — and the DPJ-backed SDPJ candidate Yanase Eiji, candidates from the JCP and Watanabe's YP. Hori should retain the seat.

The DPJ will win at least one of three seats in Saga.

Nagasaki

In Nagasaki's four districts in 2005, the LDP won three and the DPJ one.

The DPJ Takaki Yoshiaki (first district), who has represented the district since 2000, should win reelection comfortably.

In the second district, Kyuma Fumio, Japan's first ever defense minister, faces Fukuda Eriko, the twenty-eight-year-old leader of the Kyushu group of victims of Hepatitis-tainted blood transfusions, handpicked by Ozawa to run against Kyuma. Kyuma is clearly worried after having years of being reelected comfortably. Like Koga Makoto in Fukuoka, Kyuma's vote shares have gradually declined in recent elections. Kyuma may also suffer from memories of the remarks regarding the Nagasaki bombing in 2007 that led to his resignation as defense minister. With the DPJ focused on defeating Kyuma, Fukuda might win the upset.

Tanigawa Yaichi, the LDP's incumbent in the third district, has fought close elections with the DPJ's Yamada Masahiko in the past two elections, winning by 6,000 votes in 2003 and 9,000 votes in 2005. Yamada won PR seats in both elections. Reporting suggests that Tanigawa is confident that he can retain his seat on the back of Komeito support in the district, as is the LDP's Kitamura Seigo in the fourth district, who faces DPJ candidate Miyajima Daisuke. Miyajima won a by-election in the district in 1998 as an LDP candidate but lost to Kitamura by 30,000 votes in 2005.

The result could be a split in Nagasaki.

Kumamoto

In Kumamoto in 2005 the LDP won four seats and the DPJ won one.

The DPJ's Matsumoto Yorihisa (first district) will win the seat he first won in 2000.

In the second district the LDP's Hayashida Takeshi, running again in the SMD after alternating with Noda Takeshi in a Costa Rica arrangement, faces DPJ newcomer Fukushima Kenichiro and should win the district.

The third district was won by the late Matsuoka Toshikatsu in 2005, and was won by independent Sakamoto Tetsushi in the by-election following Matsuoka's suicide. Sakamoto has since joined the LDP, and faces the DPJ's Goto Hidetomo and former LDP member Miura Issui, running as an independent. It seems, however, that Sakamoto and Miura may divide the support of groups that have traditionally supported the LDP. Nevertheless, the DPJ has never done well in the district, and the winner will be either Sakamoto or Miura. Miura may edge out Sakamoto, who did the same to Matsuoka running as an independent in 2003.

In the fourth district LDP incumbent Sonoda Hiroyuki should win reelection easily, as should Kaneko Yasushi in the fifth district.

The LDP will win three, the DPJ one, and an independent conservative one.


Oita

The LDP took two seats and the DPJ one in Oita in 2005.

The DPJ's Kira Shuji (first district), who first won as an independent in 2003 and won reelection in 2005, should win the seat again.

In the second district, the SDPJ may be poised to pick up a seat, as Shigeno Yasumasa runs for the third time against LDP incumbent Eto Seishiro. Shigeno lost by 21,000 votes in 2005, closing the gap from 2003 and earning Shigeno a PR seat. With no JCP candidate running this time — the JCP received nearly 15,000 votes in 2005 — Shigeno could unseat Eto.

In the third district, the DPJ's Yokomitsu Katsuhiko will try for the third time to unseat LDP incumbent Iwaya Takeshi. Yokomitsu, losing by 12,000 votes in 2003 and 15,000 votes in 2005, won PR seats both times. The election will be close, and may ultimately depend on the ability of Yokomitsu to bring out SDPJ voters — Yokomitsu ran in 2003 as an SDPJ candidate before switching to the DPJ, and the two parties had a bitter dispute over who should run in Oita in the 2007 upper house election, resulting in both parties' fielding candidates and the LDP's winning the Oita single-member district.

Iwaya could hold on, with the result that the DPJ wins one, the LDP one, and the SDPJ one.

Miyazaki

Miyazaki is odd: LDP-affiliated candidates won all three seats in 2005, although at the time two of three were running as independent postal rebels (and both had first won in 2003 by running as independents, joining the LDP after the election). The postal rebels have returned to the LDP, but meanwhile, Nakayama Nariaki (first district), the one LDP member who did win in 2005 and is now known for resigning three days after taking office as Aso's transport minister due to comments about Nikkyoso, initially announced that he would retire but changed his mind and is now running as an independent, albeit as an independent with the support of senior LDP leaders like Machimura Nobutaka.

In the first district, the field includes, in addition to Nakayama, LDP-related independent Uesugi Mitsuhiro, a former upper house member who ran as the LDP candidate in the second district in 2005 and lost, Kawamura Hidesaburo, a former MAFF official running as an independent with DPJ, SDPJ, and PNP backing, and a JCP candidate. I suspect that Nakayama will win reelection.

Eto Taku, a postal rebel who returned to the LDP, is seeking another term in the second district, facing the DPJ's Dokyu Seichiro and an independent. Eto will likely win reelection.

In the third district, Furukawa Yoshihisa should win reelection easily.

With Nakayama likely to return to the LDP after the election, the LDP will presumably win three seats in Miyazaki.

Kagoshima

Although the LDP did not win all five seats in 2005, it is now defending all five seats in Kagoshima.

The DPJ's best chance of picking up a seat is in the first district, where LDP incumbent Yasuoka Okiharu faces the DPJ's Kawauchi Hiroshi, who has lost to Yasuoka by roughly 20,000 votes the past two elections and 9,000 votes in 2000, winning PR seats each time. The JCP is fielding a candidate and independent Yamashita Junichi is running, but Kawauchi may manage to win the district this time.

The LDP candidate in the second district, Tokuda Takeshi, was elected as an independent in 2005 but migrated to the LDP and now faces DPJ candidate Uchikoshi Akashi, a former prefectural assemblyman. As the DPJ has never fielded a candidate in the district, it is unclear how the DPJ brand will do. Uchikoshi ran as an independent in 2005 and received nearly 45,000 votes, but Tokuda and the LDP candidate combined for nearly 160,000 votes. Tokuda will probably be reelected.

In the third district, the PNP may be poised to pick up a seat as the joint PNP-DPJ candidate, Matsushita Tadahiro, finished second in 2005 to the LDP's Miyaji Kazuaki, but the DPJ vote combined with Matsushita's votes would have bested Miyaji.

The DPJ candidate in the fourth district is former Rengo Kagoshima vice president Minayoshi Inao, who faces LDP incumbent Ozato Yasuhiro. Ozato has consistently beaten opposition candidate by 40,000 votes and should win again.

Moriyama Hiroshi, the LDP's former postal rebel incumbent in the fifth district, won by 55,000 votes of an LDP "assassin" in 2005 and in 2003 defeated the DPJ's candidate by nearly 100,000 votes. He will be reelected.

The LDP will win three seats, the DPJ one, and the PNP one.

Okinawa

In Okinawa in 2005 the LDP won two seats, the SDPJ won one, and a DPJ-backed independent who has since joined the PNP won one.

In the first district, PNP incumbent Shimoji Mikio should win reelection, as should the SDPJ's Teruya Kantoku in the second district.

The LDP's incumbent in the third district, Kakazu Chiken, won in 2005 because both the DPJ and the SDPJ fielded candidates, Tamaki Deni and Tomon Mitsuko respectively. Once again the two opposition parties will be fielding these candidates, despite their combined vote in 2005 being enough to defeat Kakazu. All that may change this year is that Tamaki finishes second instead of Tomon.

Finally, in the fourth district the LDP's Nishime Kosaburo faces DPJ newcomer Zukeran Chobin. Nishime also won due to a divided field, with the DPJ, JCP, and PNP dividing up 72,000 votes that would have been sufficient to beat Nishime. Zukeran, having the field to himself, may win the district for the DPJ.

The result in Okinawa will be one for the DPJ, one for the LDP, one for the SDPJ, and one for the PNP.

Proportional representation

It is unlikely that the DPJ will run as strong in the Kyushu regional block as it will elsewhere, especially because Komeito will run stronger in Kyushu than it will elsewhere. In 2005, for example, Komeito received nearly 16% of the vote and won three PR seats. The likely PR outcome is for the LDP and the DPJ to reverse their totals, and perhaps the PNP winning a seat instead of the SDPJ, leaving the distribution at nine for the DPJ, seven for the LDP, three for Komeito, one for the JCP, and one for the PNP.

If these predictions, the DPJ will win twenty-four seats, the LDP twenty-five, the PNP three, Komeito three, the SDPJ two, the JCP one, and an independent conservative will win the last seat.

Shikoku, the LDP on the defensive

This is the tenth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The Shikoku regional block includes Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi prefectures. Combined, they elect thirteen representatives from single-member districts and another six through proportional representation, making Shikoku the smallest block, one seat behind Hokkaido's twenty.

It is also, of course, a region in which the LDP has been historically strong and like elsewhere, a region where its grip may be weakening. The LDP won eleven of thirteen SMDs in 2005, with the DPJ and an independent postal rebel splitting the remaining two seats. The PR breakdown was three seats for the LDP, two for the DPJ, and one for Komeito. 2003 was similar, except that the LDP won twelve seats and the DPJ one. The PR results were the same in 2003 as they were in 2005.

However, one of the surprises from the 2007 upper house election was the opposition's winning all four seats in Shikoku. (Each prefecture is a single-member district in the upper house.) Indeed, for me one of the most revealing moments in the campaign was when the LDP's Tamura Kohei, fighting what was ultimately a losing campaign for reelection in Kochi, publicly questioned then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's "beautiful country" rhetoric, basically saying that instead of sending words, the government should send money to his constituents.

Between 2007's results in Shikoku and this recent Sankei poll that suggests that the DPJ is polling 56% in the proportional representation race in Shikoku, a ten-point increase over 2005's PR results in the block, the DPJ should at least gain some ground in Shikoku.

Tokushima

In Tokushima in 2005 the LDP and the DPJ each took one seat, with the third going to an independent.

The DPJ's Sengoku Yoshito (first district) should be easily reelected over the LDP's Okamoto Yoshiro, who lost by 14,000 votes in 2005 but won a PR seat.

The second district features LDP incumbent Yamaguchi Shunichi, who won the seat in 2005 as independent after he left the party as a postal rebel. He rejoined the LDP in 2006 along with other repentant rebels. This year he faces the DPJ's Takai Miho who has contested the seat for the DPJ in each election since 2000. In 2003 she lost by 10,000 votes and won a PR seat. She belated received a PR seat in 2005 when the DPJ candidate ranked above her was forced to resign. She should win this time around.

Finally, in the third district the LDP's Gotoda Masazumi, the great-nephew of notable former Chief Cabinet Secretary Gotoda Masaharu, has won his seat comfortably since his first election in 2000. This year he faces Niki Hirobumi, who was the DPJ candidate in 2003 and 2005. Niki received 10,000 more votes in 2005 than he received in 2003, but he still lost by more than 38,000 votes. Gotoda should win reelection.

Nevertheless, the DPJ should win two of three seats in Tokushima.

Kagawa

The LDP won all three of Kagawa's SMDs in 2005.

It is vulnerable, however, in the first district, where incumbent Hirai Takuya faces the DPJ's Ogawa Junya for the third time. Ogawa, a former internal affairs ministry official, lost by 12,000 votes in 2005 and won a PR seat. This time around Ogawa will likely win the district outright.

The DPJ is also fielding a former bureaucrat in the second district: Tamaki Yuichiro, a former budget examiner in the finance ministry, is running for the second consecutive election against the LDP's Kimura Yoshio. Kimura won by 30,000 votes in 2005, but Tamaki will make it a close race this time. Kimura is probably safe, but Tamaki should win a PR seat.

The LDP's Ono Yoshinori (third district) has won easily in the past and faces a divided field — SDPJ (and DPJ-backed) candidate Maida Haruhiko, JCP candidate Chikaishi Michiko, and independent Manabe Takeshi, son of Manabe Kenji, an LDP upper house member who voted against postal privatization and was defeated in 2007 — suggesting that Ono will win comfortably again.

The DPJ will likely win one of three seats in Kagawa, with a decent chance of winning a second.

Ehime

Ehime, the biggest prefecture in Shikoku with four SMDs, awarded them all to the LDP in 2005.

In the first district, Shiozaki Yasuhisa, chief cabinet secretary under former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, is considered one of the LDP's marked men, despite having been reelected by large margins in the past. He faces the DPJ's Nagae Takako, who for fifteen years was an announcer on Nankai Broadcasting's popular Sunday afternoon news program, dubbed a "female assassin" by the media. Despite the enthusiasm for Nagae, she still has an uphill battle. In the past three elections Shiozaki has not won by less than 50,000 votes, and the JCP, fielding candidate Tanaka Katsuhiko, could make the difference in a close race as the JCP has received more than 10,000 votes in the past three elections. Shiozaki will probably hold on to win.

The LDP is safer in the second district, where incumbent Murakami Seiichiro faces SDPJ candidate Okahira Tomoko, who should benefit from the JCP's not fielding a candidate but not enough to unseat Murakami.

In the third district the DPJ may have a chance to win the seat being vacated by a retiring Ono Shinya, a five-term Diet member. In his place the LDP is fielding prefectural assembly member Shiraishi Toru against DPJ candidate Shiraishi Yoichi (seriously: Shiraishi versus Shiraishi). Unlike in the past, the DPJ is fielding the sole opposition candidate — in 2003 Ono won by 30,000 votes, but when the DPJ candidate's 41,000 votes are combined with the nearly 12,000 votes received by the SDPJ candidate, the nearly 11,000 received by the JCP's candidate, and the 8,000 received by an independent, Ono's victory in 2003 looks less impressive. The field was not divided in 2005, but Ono obviously had help from the national tailwind enjoyed by the LDP. Shiraishi Yoichi could pick up this seat for the DPJ.

In the fourth district, five-time LDP incumbent Yamamoto Koichi, who has won by exceedingly large margins in every election since 1996, should cruise to reelection against DPJ candidate Takahashi Hideyuki, who shares the field with independent Sakurauchi Fumiki, a more serious independent candidate than most in that he has an elite pedigree: Todai law faculty, finance ministry, Master's in Public Policy from the Harvard Kennedy School, Ph.D. from the University of Malaya, and a long list of think tank and advisory positions. He won't win, but he will make it that much harder for Takahashi to win. Sakurai has the backing of Watanabe Yoshimi's Your Party.

The DPJ will likely win one of four seats in the prefecture.

Kochi

Kochi has three seats, all of which were won by the LDP in 2005.

The DPJ stands a strong chance of winning the first district, where LDP incumbent Fukui Teru won by only 4,000 votes over the DPJ's Goto Masanori. This district is one district where the presence of a JCP candidate decided the election: the JCP's Haruna Naoaki received 22,000 votes, more than enough to throw the election to Fukui. Running in Goto's place this year is Tamura Kumiko, who was previously the DPJ's candidate in Kochi's second district. Tamura, however, shares the field with Haruna and the wild card, Hashimoto Daijiro, brother of the late Hashimoto Ryutaro and former governor of Kochi. In a straight LDP-DPJ race Tamura might have won easily, but with Haruna and Hashimoto in the race, Fukui could survive. Of course, it's possible that Hashimoto, who in July 2008 announced grand plans for a new party that have amounted to very little, will be crushed by the power of Duverger's law. Indeed, this district should provide a good test of the trend to a two-party system. If party identification matters above all else in this election, then both Hashimoto's personal popularity and the JCP's support should surmounted by a tide of support for the DPJ. I'm betting on Duverger's law: Tamura wins the seat.

In the second district, LDP incumbent Nakatani Gen, a former chief of the Japan Defense Agency, faces DPJ newcomer Kusumoto Kiyo and JCP candidate Yamanaka Masahiro. Nakatani should win easily.

Finally, six-time LDP incumbent Yamamoto Yuji (third district) should be reelected comfortably over DPJ challenger Nakayama Tomoi, running for the second time, and JCP candidate Murakami Nobuo. (Incidentally, Kochi's third district is the most overrepresented district in Japan, with 212,376 voters, whose votes are worth 2.3 times the votes of the 489,437 voters of Chiba's fourth district.)

The DPJ can pick up one seat in Kochi prefecture.

Proportional representation

Once again using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's latest polling data, and turnout data from 2005, it is possible for the DPJ to win four of six seats, leaving the remaining two for the LDP. If the Sankei poll mentioned above is correct, it is possible for the DPJ to win five to the LDP's one, but it seems unlikely that the DPJ will score 56% of the vote.

Assuming the DPJ wins four seats in the PR voting, the DPJ can win nine seats in Shikoku, compared with ten seats for the LDP. Considering the DPJ's lack of success in Shikoku in the past, trailing the LDP by only one seat would be a victory for the DPJ.

Chugoku, a conservative kingdom in decline?

This is the ninth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The Chugoku regional block, at the western end of the island of Honshu, is comprised of Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima, and Yamaguchi prefectures. It benefited from LDP machine politics during the high growth years — and it has suffered as the economy has stagnated and as the region's population has shrunk. It is revealing that the late prime ministers Takeshita Noboru, Miyazawa Kiichi, Hashimoto Ryutaro, Sato Eisaku, and Kishi Nobusuke all had seats in the region: the sons of all three are running this year (two as incumbents), as is Abe Shinzo, great-nephew and grandson of the last two.

Not surprisingly, the region elects a total of thirty-one representatives, twenty for single-member districts and eleven in the proportional representation voting.

In 2005, the LDP won seventeen SMDs, the DPJ two, and Komeito and the PNP one each. In PR voting, the LDP won five seats, the DPJ three, Komeito two, and the PNP one. If anything the region was even more lopsided in 2003, when the LDP won eighteen SMDs and the DPJ two, with the LDP and Komeito combining for seven and the DPJ winning the remaining four PR seats.

However, in the 2007 upper house election, the DPJ won three of the block's four single-member districts, the reverse of the 2004 upper house election.

Tottori

Tottori has only two SMDs, not surprisingly given that it is the least populous of Japan's forty-seven prefectures with only 595,000 people according to the 2008 population survey.

The LDP has incumbents in both districts. In the first, Ishiba Shigeru, agriculture minister in the Aso cabinet, defense minister in the Fukuda cabinet, and contender for the premiership in last year's LDP presidential election, faces Okuda Yasuaki, a onetime secretary of Ishiba's and former Tottori prefectural assemblyman. Given Ishiba's past margins of victory, Okuda will have a hard time unseating his former boss.

In the second district, however, the race is more uncertain. LDP incumbent Akazawa Ryosei won in 2005 by defeating independent Kawakami Yoshihiro, who won as an independent in 2003, joined the LDP, then left again in 2005 as a postal rebel. Kawakami then joined the DPJ and won a seat in the upper house. The DPJ candidate this year is Yuhara Shunji, a four-time prefectural assembly member and, as his website makes clear, a farmer. The combined vote of Kawakami and then-DPJ candidate Yamauchi Osamu vastly outnumbered Akazawa's. The question is whether Yuhara can win both candidates' votes this year.

The DPJ could win one of two seats in Tottori.

Shimane

Shimane, also with only two seats, is the second least populous prefecture in Japan, coming out just ahead of Tottori with 725,000 people.

Hosoda Hiroyuki (first district), the LDP's secretary-general, won sizable margins in 2003 and 2005, and faces a new challenger, DPJ candidate Komuro Hisaaki, a former Shimane assemblyman. Hosoda will be reelected easily, but it does bear mentioning the presence of prefectural assembly members among DPJ candidates, especially in this part of the country, which could make the DPJ more competitive in years to come.

In the second district, the LDP's Takeshita Wataru faces the PNP's Kamei Hisaoki, the PNP's secretary general. Kamei, one of 2005's postal rebels, previously represented Shimane's third district, which no longer exists. Takeshita, the brother of Takeshita Noboru, defeated Kamei by more than 55,o00 votes in 2005 — and if Kamei's and then-DPJ candidate Komuro's votes were totaled, Takeshita won by 20,000 votes, with the JCP's receving more than 10,000. Given the surprising victory of Kamei's daughter Akiko in the 2007 upper house election, however, Kamei may be able to win. The JCP is not fielding a candidate, and Kamei has the backing of the other opposition parties.

Okayama

Okayama has five districts, making it the block's second largest prefecture behind Hiroshima. Amazingly, the DPJ's position in Okayama actually improved from 2003 to 2005, as two DPJ candidates won in 2005 while none won in 2005.

Tsumura Keisuke (second district) first ran in 2003 when he finished within 10,000 votes of the LDP incumbent Kumashiro Akihiro and won a PR seat. Kumashiro voted against postal privatization in 2005, but he did not run in the district, resulting in a head-to-head battle between Tsumura and Hagiwara Seiji, which Tsumura won by 2,000 votes. This time, however, the field is divided. Tsumura faces LDP candidate Hagiwara, PNP candidate Akamatsu Kazutaka, and Kumashiro, running as an independent. This is the only district in the country where PNP and DPJ candidates will go head to head. Tsumura probably has the upper hand on the basis of his incumbency and the DPJ's national strength, but it should be a close election regardless.

Okayama's fourth district, once the district of the late Hashimoto Ryutaro, is now represented by the DPJ's Yunoki Michiyoshi, who won the seat by 6,000 votes in 2005 over this year's LDP candidate Hashimoto Gaku, second son of the late prime minister. Having won in 2005 despite the Koizumi landslide, Yunoki should be safe this year.

The LDP should be safe in the first district, where Aisawa Ichiro faces DPJ challenger Takai Takashi, a former internal affairs ministry official. Aisawa doubled up the DPJ candidate in 2005, and should emerge victorious again.

The LDP's situation in the fifth district is more uncertain: Murata Yoshitaka, the winner in 2005, defeated DPJ candidate Hanasaki Hiroki, by roughly 50,000 votes, but due to the LDP's Costa Rica system will be running as a PR candidate. In his place the LDP is running Kato Katsunobu, who won PR seats in 2003 and 2005. The substitution of Kato for Murata could swing the election to Hanasaki.

Finally, in the third district, Hiranuma Takeo, leading postal rebel who is hoping to build a conservative "third pole" in the political system, is running for reelection in a field with the LDP's Abe Toshiko, who he defeated by 40,000 votes in 2005, and the DPJ's Nishimura Keito. It is likely, however, that the field will split as it did in 2005, perhaps with Nishimura finishing in second ahead of Abe.

The DPJ could win three of five seats in Okayama.

Hiroshima

Hiroshima, with seven districts, is the largest prefecture in the block. The LDP won six of seven seats in 2005 and 2003; in 2005, the one non-LDP seat was won by the PNP.

Accordingly, Kamei Shizuka (sixth district), the head of the PNP, should win reelection easily.

The DPJ's best chances to pick up seats are in the second district, where Matsumoto Daisuke, winner in 2003, should be able to reclaim the district from the LDP's Hiraguchi Hiroshi, helped by the absence of a JCP candidate (Matsumoto lost by 17,000 votes and won a PR seat); and the fifth district, where the LDP's Terada Minoru, who first won the seat in 2003, faces the DPJ's Mitani Mitsuo for the third time. Mitani, a former finance ministry official, lost by 6,000 votes in both 2003 and 2005, winning a PR seat in 2005.

Safe LDP incumbents include Kishida Fumio (first district), facing the DPJ's Sugekawa Hiroshi for the second time, and Nakagawa Hidenao (fourth district), who faces the DPJ's Soramoto Seiki for the third time.

Miyazawa Yoichi (seventh district), son of the late Miyazawa Kiichi, may be vulnerable: for the third time he faces the DPJ's Wada Takashi, a former finance ministry official, who lost by 18,000 votes to Miyazawa in 2003 and 2005, winning a PR seat in 2003. With the JCP, which received 14,000 votes in the district in 2005, not running a candidate, Wada could defeat Miyazawa.

The LDP may also be vulnerable in the fifth district, another district where a victorious incumbent from 2005 will run as a PR candidate due to the Costa Rica system. LDP candidate Masaharu Yoshitake last won the seat in 2003, when he defeated an SDPJ candidate by more than 50,000 votes. This time, however, he faces former bureaucrat Hashimoto Hiroaki, who placed second in a field that also included an independent who received nearly 32,000 votes and an SDPJ candidate who received 26,000 votes, as well as a JCP candidate and another independent who combined for more than 10,000 votes. Hashimoto should win the seat.

In Hiroshima, the DPJ should win four, the LDP two, and the PNP one.

Yamaguchi

Finally, in Yamaguchi, the LDP won all four seats in 2005, three of four in 2003, and the prefecture's upper house seat in 2007. It did win back one seat in a by-election in 2008.

The LDP has strong incumbents in former Foreign Minister Komura Masahiko (first district); Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura Takeo (third district); and former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo (fourth district).

The DPJ lost the second district in 2005, but Hiraoka Hideo, who won the seat in 2000 and 2003 before losing by 1,000 votes in 2005 and settling for a PR seat, won it back in the 2008 by-election to replace 2005 winner Fukuda Yoshihiko, who was elected mayor of Iwakuni. Hiraoka should be reelected comfortably, keeping the status quo in place in Yamaguchi.

Proportional representation

Once again using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's latest polling data, and turnout data from 2005, the best the DPJ can do is six seats to the LDP's three, with the PNP and Komeito each taking one. Given that it is unlikely that the DPJ will poll as strongly in PR voting in Chugoku as it will elsewhere, five seats is probably more likely, perhaps with Komeito gaining a seat in the process. A more likely outcome is therefore DPJ five, LDP three, Komeito two, PNP one.

Accordingly, the DPJ can win fourteen seats in Chugoku, the LDP eleven, the PNP three, Komeito two, and independent Hiranuma Takeo one.

Kinki, the metropolitan west

This is the eighth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

The Kinki regional block, which includes Shiga prefecture, Kyoto, Osaka, and Hyogo, Nara, and Wakayama prefectures, elects forty-eight representatives from single-member districts and twenty-nine more through proportional representation, for a total of seventy-seven representatives.

The third major metropolitan area along with the Tokyo and Nagoya areas, it is another area where the DPJ can expect to make major gains over its 2005 returns. In 2005 the LDP-Komeito and the opposition parties were nearly even in PR voting: the government parties won fifteen, the opposition parties fourteen, with the LDP's winning eleven to the DPJ's nine. But the DPJ did poorly in SMDs, winning only eight of the forty-eight SMDs. In 2003, however, the DPJ won twenty SMDs to the LDP's nineteen, and in the PR voting the balance was fifteen to fourteen in favor of the opposition parties.

Shiga

The DPJ is in a position to win at least three of Shiga's four seats — and stands a strong chance in the fourth.

The DPJ's candidate in the first district, Kawabata Tatsuo, is a DPJ vice president and has been elected to the Diet seven times. He was forced to settle for a PR seat in 2005, losing to LDP incumbent Ueno Kenichiro, but should easily retake the seat this year. The DPJ's Tajima Issei (second district) won in 2003 and in 2005, and should defeat the LDP's Fujii Yuji for the second consecutive election. In the third district, DPJ incumbent Mikazuki Taizo, who first won the seat in 2003, was reelected by fewer than 300 votes over LDP candidate Uno Osamu. Mikazuki should have an easier time in this year's rematch.

The fourth district, created in the 2002 redistricting, has been won by the LDP's Iwanaga Mineichi in both elections since its creation. Iwanaga, however, has retired, meaning that Omura Tenzo, the DPJ candidate he defeated in 2003 and 2005 (by only 5,000 votes in 2003), stands a strong chance of defeating LDP newcomer Muto Takaya, a former policy staffer for the LDP's caucus in the Shiga prefectural assembly. In the past the JCP vote has roughly equaled or exceeded Iwanaga's margin of victory, but while the JCP is fielding a candidate, Omura should win comfortably.

Kyoto

Kyoto, with six districts, has been split between the LDP and the DPJ in the past two elections.

Former DPJ leader Maehara Seiji (second district), Izumi Kenta (third district), and Yamanoi Kazunori (sixth district) should all be reelected easily. (Maehara will face SDPJ candidate Fujita Takakage in addition to JCP candidate Hara Toshifumi, but given Maehara's "neo-conservatism," Fujita probably hurts Hara more than he hurts Maehara.)

One factor that will determine whether the DPJ can pick up more seats in Kyoto is the JCP, which has done extraordinarily well in Kyoto in the past.

In the first district, LDP incumbent Ibuki Bunmei, education minister the Abe cabinet and LDP secretary-general and finance minister (briefly) under Fukuda Yasuo, may win reelection largely by dint of the JCP's running Kokuta Keiji, its Diet strategy chairman, in the district. In 2000, Kokuta received 68,000 votes, with the DPJ candidate's finishing a distant third. In 2003 his vote total fell to 50,000 votes, resulting in a third-place finish, but more than enough votes to throw the election to Ibuki. The 2005 was similar to 2003, except that unlike in 2003 only Kokuta received a PR seat — DPJ candidate Tamaki Kazuya did not. This year's outcome should resemble 2003's, with new DPJ candidate Taira Tomoyuki's finishing second to Ibuki and Kokuta's finishing third, both with enough votes to win PR seats.

In the fourth district, which until 2003 was represented by the LDP's Nonaka Hiromu, the race features three of four candidates from 2005: LDP incumbent Nakagawa Yasuhiro, DPJ candidate Kitagami Keiro, and independent (LDP postal rebel) Tanaka Hideo. The JCP is fielding candidate Yoshida Koichi. Kitagami will likely win this time around: he was 3,000 votes behind Nakagawa and won a PR seat in 2005, while Tanaka finished roughly 160 votes behind Nakagawa. Kitagami will presumably win by drawing votes away from the other three candidates.

The LDP should be safe in the fifth district, where incumbent Tanigaki Sadakazu, who has won by large margins since 1996, faces a new DPJ challenger, Ohara Mai, and the same JCP challenger, Yoshida Sayumi, from the past two elections. Until 2005, no DPJ candidate had exceeded 40,000 votes — and while the DPJ received 49,000 votes in 2005, that was still almost 60,000 less than Tanigaki's votes.

The DPJ should win four of six seats in Kyoto.

Osaka

Osaka, the biggest jurisdiction in the block, sends nineteen representatives to the Diet. In 2005, the LDP won thirteen, Komeito won four — and the DPJ won only two seats, a marked change from 2003 when the DPJ won nine, the LDP six, and Komeito four. In other words, there are seven seats that the DPJ won in 2003 and should be able to win again. The DPJ should also be helped by the support of Osaka governor Hashimoto Toru.

Hirano Hirofumi (eleventh district) and Nagayasu Takashi (nineteenth district), the DPJ's incumbents from 2005, should win reelection comfortably.

In the fourth district, the DPJ's Yoshida Osamu will try to retake the seat he won in 2003 from the LDP's Nakayama Yasuhide. Yoshida, who has been elected to the Diet three times, bested Nakayama, the son of former Diet member Nakayama Masaaki, the nephew of former foreign minister Nakayama Taro, and the grandson of Nakayama Masa, Japan's first female cabinet minister, in 2003, although Nakayama won a PR seat. While the JCP has won at least 25,000 votes in the past two elections, Yoshida should be able to take the seat back from Nakayama.

In the seventh district, LDP incumbent Toshiaki Naomi will try to defend her seat from the DPJ's Fujimura Osamu, who represented the district first as a New Frontier member in 1996 and as a DPJ member in 2000 and 2003. Fujimura will win comfortably.

Similarly, the DPJ's candidate in the eighth district, Nakano Kansei, first won the district in 1996 under the NFP banner and then again in 2000 and 2003 as a DPJ candidate. The LDP's Otsuka Takashi will likely go down to defeat.

Otani Nobumori, the DPJ's candidate in the ninth district, won the seat in 2000 and 2003 before losing in 2005 to Nishida Takeshi, the LDP member he defeated in 2000. However, Nishida died in 2006, prompting a by-election that was the first following the transition from Koizumi to Abe. Harada Kenji, the son of a former LDP cabinet minister, won the by-election, with help no doubt from Abe's popularity. Otani should win easily.

Tarutoko Jinji, the DPJ's candidate in the twelfth district, first won the seat in 1996 as an NFP candidate, and was reelected in 2000 and 2003 as a DPJ candidate. His victory in 2003 was narrow — fewer than 1000 votes — over LDP candidate Kitagawa Tomokatsu, who won the district in 2005 by nearly 30,000 votes. Tarutoko should win the seat back for the DPJ.

In the seventeenth district, the DPJ will be fielding Tsuji Megumu, who ran losing campaigns in the third district in 2003 and 2005 (although he won a PR seat in 2003), against LDP incumbent Okashita Nobuko, who in 2005 defeated the now notorious DPJ incumbent Nishimura Shingo. Nishimura, an outspoken conservative, won a PR seat in 2005, was arrested in 2005 on suspicion of having violated the Lawyers Law, fell into depression in 2008 when his son fell to his death from his apartment, and left the DPJ later that year to join the Reform Club, a minor party. Nishimura is running for the seat again, but given what has transpired since 2005, it is unlikely that Nishimura will be a factor in the race. Tsuji should win this year.

In the tenth district, the Social Democratic Party of Japan is fielding the primary opposition candidate, Tsujimoto Kiyomi, against LDP incumbent Matsunami Kenta. In 2005 the SDPJ fielded Tsujimoto while the DPJ fielded the incumbent Hida Miyoko, resulting in Matsunami's winning, as the two opposition candidates combined for more than 120,000 votes to Matsunami's 83,000 votes. With the DPJ's backing Tsujimoto — who finished second and won a PR seat in 2005 — the SDPJ should pick up this seat.

The LDP is strong in four districts. Chuma Koki (first district) will face DPJ candidate Kumada Atsushi for the third straight election — Kumada has never come close enough to win even a PR seat. In the thirteenth district, LDP incumbent Nishino Akira, who first won the district in 1996 as an NFP candidate before winning it in 2003 and 2005 as the LDP candidate, faces the opposition-backed PNP candidate Shiraishi Junko. Nishino will presumably hold his seat, helped by the JCP's running Yoshii Hidekatsu, who has been reelected six times and in 2005 received 41,000 votes. He was won PR seats in the district in the past three elections, finishing second in 2000. Tanihata Takashi (fourteenth district) and Takemoto Naokazu (fifteenth district) should be easily reelected as well.

The LDP is vulnerable in the eighteenth district. The incumbent Nakayama Taro is, at eighty-four, the oldest Diet member and the only one to have been born during the Taisho period. Nakayama faces Nakagawa Osamu, who lost by fewer than 20,000 votes in 2003 and won a PR seat before losing by a sizable margin in 2005. Nakayama has been forced to campaign hard this year, and may be defeated by Nakagawa.

Komeito has strong incumbents in Tabata Masahiko (third district) and Fukushima Yutaka (sixth district). Its incumbents in the fifth district, Taniguchi Takayoshi, and the sixteenth district, Komeito secretary-general Kitagawa Kazuo, are more vulnerable. In the fifth, Taniguchi faces Inami Tetsuo, who lost by 7,000 votes in 2003. For Inami to win, he will have to cut into the JCP vote, 43,000 votes in 2005, 37,000 votes in 2003, both times enough to make a difference in the election. Opposing Kitagawa is Moriyama Hiroyuki, a former Osaka assemblyman running for higher office for the first time. Moriyama could upset the Komeito heavyweight, as Tarui Yoshikazu, the DPJ's candidate in 2003 and 2005 lost by only 11,000 votes in 2003 and won a PR seat.

Finally, Osaka's second district is a tossup. In a rematch of the 2005 election, LDP incumbent Kawajo Shika will face Hagihara Hitoshi, the DPJ candidate who finished third in 2005, and postal rebel independent Sato Akira. Kawajo narrowly bested Sato, winning by roughly 2,000 votes, while Hagihara finished a distant third with just over 50,000 votes. The DPJ has never done particularly well in this district, so it may once again be a battle between Kawajo and Sato. Kawajo may have the upper hand.

In Osaka, the DPJ will likely win eleven seats, the LDP five, Komeito two, and the SDPJ one.

Hyogo

The LDP and Komeito swept Hyogo's twelve districts in 2005, with the LDP's taking ten and Komeito's winning the last two. The balance between government and opposition was nine and three in 2003.

LDP incumbents Inoue Kichi (fourth district) and Nishimura Yasutoshi (ninth district) are likely safe.

Meanwhile it is possible for the DPJ to win nine seats in Hyogo.

In the first district, the DPJ lost in 2005, but its candidate lost by less than 1,000 votes in 2003. Its candidate this year, Ido Masae, is a former prefectural assemblywoman, making her a politically experienced candidate who enjoys the support of DPJ heavyweights. She should defeat LDP incumbent Moriyama Masahito, who won for the first time in 2005.

In the second district, Komeito's Akaba Kazuyoshi faces DPJ challenger Mukoyama Koichi, a former Kobe city assemblyman. Akaba won by more than 20,000 votes in 2005, but in 2003, he defeated the DPJ's Izumi Fusaho by little over 3,000 votes. Mukoyama should defeat Akaba this year.

Seki Yoshihiro, the LDP's incumbent in the third district, defeated the DPJ's Doi Ryuichi by around 5,000 votes in 2005. Doi, first elected to the district in 1996 from the Democratic Reform Party and from the DPJ in 2000 and 2003, should regain the seat this year.

In the fifth district, LDP incumbent Tani Koichi faces the DPJ's Kajiwara Yasuhiko for the third straight election. Kajiwara lost by 4,000 votes in 2003 and won a PR seat, but lost by nearly 30,000 votes in 2005. Kajiwara should be helped by the absence of independent candidate Himura Toyohiko, whose 36,000 votes in 2005 were more than Tani's margin of victory.

The DPJ candidate in the sixth district, Ichimura Koichiro, won the district in 2003 but finished 10,000 votes behind LDP incumbent Kobiki Tsukasa in 2005, winning a PR seat instead. Ichimura should win the seat this year.

In the tenth district, LDP incumbent Tokai Kisaburo defeated his DPJ challenger Okada Yasuhiro by roughly 20,000 votes in 2003 and 2005. The absence of a JCP candidate this year — JCP candidates received 15,000 and 16,000 votes in 2003 and 2005 respectively — could make the difference in a DPJ victory.

The DPJ candidate in the eleventh district, Matsumoto Takeaki, won the seat in 2000 over the current LDP incumbent Toida Toru. Matsumoto won again in 2003 over Toida but lost to him by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2005. He should retake the seat this time.

In the twelfth district, the DPJ's Yamaguchi Tsuyoshi faces LDP incumbent Komoto Saburo for the fifth time. Yamaguchi has won all but once, in 2000, when Komoto won as an independent. Yamaguchi lost by 5,000 votes in 2003, and in 2005, running as a DPJ candidate for the first time, he finished within 10,000 votes of Komoto and won a PR seat. He should win this time.

Oomae Shigeo (seventh district) faced a split field in 2005, with the DPJ and SDPJ candidates combining for 120,000 votes to Oomae's 145,000. In 2003, the SDPJ's Doi Takako finished roughly 15,000 votes behind Oomae and won a PR seat. With Ishi Toshiro, the DPJ candidate from 2005, as the unified opposition candidate, the DPJ should at least make the election close, although Oomae will likely win.

Finally, in the eighth district Komeito's Fuyushiba Tetsuzo may profit from a divided field: New Party Japan leader Tanaka Yasuo will be contesting the seat, as well SDPJ candidate Ichiki Banko. The SDPJ ran candidates in the district against DPJ candidates in 2003 and 2005, and while they received even fewer votes than JCP candidates, they affected the race — especially in 2003, when the SDPJ's Kitagawa Renko received votes greater than the difference between Fuyushiba and DPJ candidate Muroi Kunihiko.

The DPJ should win at least eight seats in Hyogo, while the LDP will likely win three seats and Komeito one.

Nara

The LDP took three of four seats in Nara in 2005, while the LDP and DPJ split the four in 2003.

The DPJ's Mabuchi Sumio (first district) should win his seat for the third time.

In the second district, LDP incumbent Takaichi Sanae, who had previously served three terms in the Diet 1993-2000, defeated postal rebel Taki Makoto, who in 2005 ran as a NPJ candidate and won a PR seat despite receiving fewer than 30,000 votes, compared with the DPJ's Nakamura Tetsuji, who received more than 70,000 votes. Nakamura had in fact narrowly defeated Taki in 2003, forcing him to settle for a PR seat. This time, however, Taki will be running as the DPJ candidate against Takaichi. Based on the party's performance in the past, the DPJ should be able to pick up the seat — based on declining support for Taki, however, Takaichi could win reelection.

The third district features a rematch between LDP incumbent Okuno Shinsuke and DPJ challenger and former Nara prefectural assemblyman Yoshikawa Masashige. The DPJ lost by 25,000 votes in 2003 and 30,000 in 2005. Okuno should be reelected.

The LDP's Tanose Ryotaro (fourth district) has won the district comfortably, although his margin of victory did fall from 60,000 to 30,000 votes from 2003 to 2005. The DPJ candidate this year is Oonishi Takanori, a former DPJ headquarters staffer and secretary to current upper house member and former lower house member Maeda Takeshi. Oonishi will make it a closer fight, but Tanose should be reelected.

The result? The LDP and DPJ split the prefecture's four seats again.

Wakayama

Wakayama, with three seats, has given all three to the LDP in 2003 and 2005 (technically two to the LDP and one to the Conservative Party in 2003, which soon became an LDP seat). A DPJ candidate has never won an SMD in Wakayama, although NFP candidates won in the past.

In the first district, in 2005 LDP incumbent Tanimoto Tatsuya defeated DPJ challenger Kishimoto Shuhei, a former finance ministry official by 22,000 votes. Kishimoto may be able to upset Tanimoto, who like most LDP incumbents is struggling against the mood in the DPJ's favor.

Ishida Masatoshi, the LDP's incumbent in the second district, has won comfortably in the past, and faces a new DPJ challenger, Sakaguchi Naoto, a prefectural party official. The JCP will not be fielding a candidate in the district, but Ishida should still win reelection.

Finally, against Nikai Toshihiro, METI minister in the Aso cabinet, who has won reelection by enormous margins in the past, the DPJ is running former Wakayama assemblyman Tamaki Kimiyoshi. Nikai has to campaign this time, but he should still win reelection.

The DPJ's best chance to win a seat in the prefecture is the first district, where Kishimoto should be able to close the gap.

Proportional representation

Once again using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's latest polling data, and turnout data from 2005, it is possible for the DPJ to win seventeen seats, the LDP nine, and one each for Komeito, the JCP, and the SDPJ. (The distribution of seats among smaller parties is probably not accurate: with the NPJ's Tanaka Yasuo running simultaneously in Hyogo-8 and Kinki PR, the NPJ could pick up one seat. Also, given the JCP's strength in the Kinki block, the JCP will likely do better than one seat.)

Between SMDs and PR seats, the DPJ could win forty-six seats, the LDP twenty-four seats, Komeito four, the SDPJ two, and the JCP one. Forty-six seats would be a major improvement over 2005, of course, but it would also be a fifteen-seat improvement over 2003.

Tokai, Japan's industrial heartland — and a DPJ stronghold?

This is the seventh installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The Tokai block, comprised of Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi, and Mie prefectures, is Japan's industrial heartland. Aichi, the fourth most populous prefecture, is home to several major corporations, most notably Toyota, and the population of the Nagoya metropolitan area, along with the Tokyo metropolitan area, continues to grow while that of other areas shrinks.

The Tokai block elects fifty-four Diet members, thirty-three members from single-member districts and twenty-one through proportional representation.

The LDP and the DPJ have been fairly evenly matched in the region: in PR voting in 2005 the LDP and Komeito took twelve seats, with the DPJ taking eight, and the JCP taking one. In 2003, the LDP and Komeito took eleven, while the DPJ took nine and the JCP one. Meanwhile, in SMDs the LDP and Komeito won twenty-three in 2005, with the DPJ's winning the remaining ten. In 2003, however, the split was eighteen to fifteen in the governing coalition's favor, suggesting that the DPJ should have little difficulty picking up ground in the Tokai block.

Gifu

Of the block's four prefectures, the LDP is strongest in Gifu. Since the first general election under the new electoral system in 1996, the DPJ has never won an SMD in the prefecture.

LDP incumbents Noda Seiko (first district), in the Aso cabinet holding the portfolios for food safety, science and technology, consumer affairs and space policy, Tanahashi Yasufumi (second district), Kaneko Kazuyoshi (fourth district), Aso's minister for land and transport, and Furuya Keiji (fifth district), a postal rebel in 2005 subsequently readmitted to the LDP should win reelection comfortably. The DPJ candidates facing these incumbents are newcomers to politics, and the DPJ has performed poorly in these districts in the past.

In the third district, however, the DPJ stands a chance of picking up an SMD in Gifu for the first time. LDP incumbent Muto Yoji inherited in the seat from his father in 2005; he is a fourth-generation politician, and is a member of Aso Taro's faction. In 2005, however, his rival, DPJ candidate Sonoda Yasuhiro, lost by 17,000 votes and won a PR seat for the second time, as in 2003 he lost to Muto's father by only 5,000 votes. Sonoda should be able to win the district this year.

Shizuoka

The LDP and Komeito won six of eight seats in Shizuoka in 2005, and five of eight in 2003.

DPJ incumbents Hosono Goji (fifth district) and Watanabe Shu (sixth district) should win reelection comfortably. The DPJ should win in the first district, where the DPJ's Makino Seishu, who won the district in 2003, will be fighting to retake it from Kamikawa Yoko, the LDP incumbent he defeated in 2003 (and lost to by 500 votes in 2000). While the JCP will be fielding a candidate in the district, Makino won in 2003 despite both the JCP and the SDPJ's fielding candidates. The DPJ's position in the fourth district is also strong: for the third straight election the LDP's Mochizuki Yoshio will face DPJ challenger Tamura Kenji. Tamura received nearly 46% of the vote in 2005, good for a PR seat and up from nearly 40% in 2003, when he had to share the field with a JCP candidate who received 7% of the vote. The DPJ should win the eighth district as well: for the fourth time, LDP incumbent Shionoya Ryu and DPJ challenger Suzuki Yasutomo will be battling, with a JCP candidate also in the race. Shionoya first won the seat in a by-election in the late 1990s, and again in 2003 and 2005. Suzuki won in 2000 and lost by 3,000 votes in 2003, earning him a PR seat. Suzuki should win this round. The DPJ also stands a good chance of winning in the second district, where for the fourth straight election DPJ candidate Tsugawa Shogo will try to win the seat from the LDP incumbent, Harada Yoshitsugu. (Harada inherited the seat from his father in 2003 — Tsugawa won a PR seat running against Harada pere in 2000, and belatedly won a PR seat in 2003 when another Diet member was forced to resign.)

Harder to predict is the seventh district, where Katayama Satsuki, a former finance ministry official recruited as an LDP candidate in 2005, is vulnerable to the same trend that threatens other Koizumi children. The battle in the seventh district will be similar to 2005, when Katayama defeated postal rebel Kiuchi Minoru by 700 votes, with the DPJ candidate finishing a distant third. Kiuchi will be running again — and will be repeating 2005's campaign against the Koizumi reforms. Appropriately, Koizumi Junichiro has already visited the district in support of Katayama. The DPJ is running Saiki Takeshi, a former NHK announcer. The DPJ won the district in 2000, so it is possible for the DPJ to win here. The question is what matters more: policy or party identification. If voters in the seventh care more about party identity, Saiki may have a chance; if they vote more on the basis of policy, Kiuchi may be returning to the Diet. I suspect Kiuchi will win.

The LDP's most secure seat is the third district, where Yanagisawa Hakuo, perhaps now best known as the Abe cabinet minister who referred to women as "machines for giving birth," faces DPJ newcomer Koyama Nobuhiro, a former Norin Chukin employee. Like most LDP incumbents Yanagisawa is nervous — Yomiuri reports that for the first time he requested an endorsement from Komeito, and actually launched a website (!) — due to the weakening of the LDP's organizational vote. But Yanagisawa should hold on to his seat comfortably.

The result could be the DPJ's winning six of eight seats in Shizuoka.

Aichi

Aichi is, not surprisingly, the largest prefecture in the block, electing fifteen representatives. The DPJ has done well in Aichi in the past — in 2003 the party won ten seats to the LDP's three (Komeito won two). However, in 2005 the LDP took nine seats, with the DPJ's winning the remaining six.

DPJ incumbents Furukawa Motohisa (second district), Kondo Shoichi (third district), Maki Yoshio (fourth district), Furimoto Shinichiro (eleventh district), and Suzuki Katsumasa (fourteenth district) should win reelection easily. In the first district, Kawamura Takashi, who had represented the district since 1996, resigned when he was elected the mayor of Nagoya earlier this year. In his place will be running Sato Yuko, an Aichi prefectural assemblywoman. Given Kawamura's longtime success in the district, indeed given the DPJ's dominance in Nagoyama (it won four of five districts in the city in 2005, and a PR seat in the fifth and now obviously controls the mayoralty), Sato should win comfortably.

Additionally, the DPJ should win the fifth district easily, where Akamatsu Hirotaka, currently the DPJ's chief election strategist, won in 1996, 2000, and 2003 before losing by 10,000 votes in 2005 to LDP candidate Kimura Takahide, who is purportedly retiring due to his having voted for postal privatization in 2005 despite personally opposing it. In his place the LDP is running businessman Teranishi Mutsumi. The DPJ should also win in the other districts it won in 2003 but lost in 2005. In the sixth district, the DPJ won in 2000 and 2003 (and a PR seat in 2005) with candidate Maeda Yukichi, who announced last year that he would not run in this election. Replacing Maeda as the party's standard bearer is Ishida Yoshihiro, who served two terms as mayor of Inuyama city (one of the cities in the sixth) before losing by 7,000 votes in Aichi's 2007 gubernatorial election. Ishida will likely defeat LDP incumbent Niwa Hideki. Similarly, in the seventh district, the DPJ won the district in 2000 and 2003 before LDP incumbent Suzuki Junji won the seat in 2005. Unlike past elections, however, neither the SDPJ nor the JCP will be fielding candidates this time — as the DPJ won in the past despite the divided field (the JCP and SDPJ combined received 36,000 votes in 2003), DPJ candidate Yamao Shiori should win comfortably this time. The DPJ should also win easily in the eighth district, where Banno Yutaka won in 2003 (and lost but won PR seats in 2000 and 2005) — Banno lost by only 7,000 votes to LDP incumbent Ito Tadahiko in 2005. Similarly, in the ninth district in 2003 and 2005 Okamato Mitsunori lost to former Prime Minister Kaifu Toshiki but won PR seats both times, losing by 12,000 votes in 2003 and 20,000 votes in 2005. This year Kaifu, who has won sixteen times, may finally be defeated.

The DPJ's position is a bit more uncertain in the tenth, twelfth, thirteenth, and fifteenth districts, where DPJ candidates lost in 2003 and did well enough to win PR seats — but were defeated by sizable enough margins in 2005 to not win PR seats. In the tenth, LDP incumbent Esaki Tetsuma won by fewer than 800 votes in 2003 when he was running as a Conservative Party candidate. He won by 36,000 votes in 2005 over his DPJ challenger this year, Sugimoto Kazumi. The JCP, which has received 20,000 votes in the past two elections, will not be fielding a candidate this time, which should help swing the seat to the DPJ. In the twelfth, DPJ candidate Nakane Yasuhiro will try for the fourth time to unseat LDP incumbent Sugiura Seiken. Nakane has come close in the past, and should receive enough support this time to win. In the thirteenth, former DPJ candidate Shima Satoshi lost by less than 5,000 votes and won a PR seat against the LDP's Omura Hideaki. Shima lost decisively in 2005, and this time the DPJ candidate will be former diplomat Onishi Kensuke. Again, the narrow margin in 2003 suggests that the DPJ could win the district this year. In the fifteenth district, the DPJ came within 16,000 votes of incumbent Yamamoto Akihiko, but Morimoto Kazuyoshi, the DPJ's candidate in 2005 (and this year), lost by nearly 50,000 votes. Yamamoto should win reelection.

The DPJ could win thirteen seats in Aichi, and has at least a decent chance of winning all fifteen seats.

Mie

Mie has five districts, which the LDP and DPJ divided three and two in 2003 and 2005.

DPJ incumbents Nakagawa Masaharu (second district) and Okada Katsuya (third district) should win comfortably this year.

LDP incumbent Mitsuya Norio (fifth district) may feel threatened to the point of announcing that he will not be running simultaneously as a PR candidate (to show his seriousness to his constituents) — but he is probably the LDP's safest incumbent in the district.

For the fifth straight election the first district will feature a showdown between LDP incumbent Kawasaki Jiro and DPJ challenger Nakai Hiroshi. Nakai won the seat as a New Frontier Party candidate in 1996, but has lost to Kawasaki in the three elections since, winning a PR seat each time. Nakai may be a beneficiary of the absence of a JCP candidate: in 2003, for example, the JCP candidate received 11,000 votes, roughly the same as Kawasaki's margin of victory.

In the fourth district, LDP incumbent Tamura Norihisa faces DPJ challenger Morimoto Tetsuo for the second time. Morimoto, a former Mie prefectural assemblyman, lost by only 13,000 votes to Tamura in 2005, winning a PR seat. Mainichi reports that Morimoto has focused his efforts on the areas of the district he performed poorly in in 2005, suggesting that he may be able to close the gap — he'll certainly have help from the national mood.

The DPJ should win four of five seats in Mie.

Proportional representation

Once again using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's latest polling data, and turnout data from 2005, it is possible that the DPJ will win twelve seats, the LDP seven, and Komeito and the JCP one each.

Between SMDs and PR voting, the DPJ could win thirty-six of fifty-four seats in the block, leaving the LDP with sixteen seats, and Komeito and the JCP with one apiece.