Chugoku, a conservative kingdom in decline?

This is the ninth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

The Chugoku regional block, at the western end of the island of Honshu, is comprised of Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima, and Yamaguchi prefectures. It benefited from LDP machine politics during the high growth years — and it has suffered as the economy has stagnated and as the region's population has shrunk. It is revealing that the late prime ministers Takeshita Noboru, Miyazawa Kiichi, Hashimoto Ryutaro, Sato Eisaku, and Kishi Nobusuke all had seats in the region: the sons of all three are running this year (two as incumbents), as is Abe Shinzo, great-nephew and grandson of the last two.

Not surprisingly, the region elects a total of thirty-one representatives, twenty for single-member districts and eleven in the proportional representation voting.

In 2005, the LDP won seventeen SMDs, the DPJ two, and Komeito and the PNP one each. In PR voting, the LDP won five seats, the DPJ three, Komeito two, and the PNP one. If anything the region was even more lopsided in 2003, when the LDP won eighteen SMDs and the DPJ two, with the LDP and Komeito combining for seven and the DPJ winning the remaining four PR seats.

However, in the 2007 upper house election, the DPJ won three of the block's four single-member districts, the reverse of the 2004 upper house election.

Tottori

Tottori has only two SMDs, not surprisingly given that it is the least populous of Japan's forty-seven prefectures with only 595,000 people according to the 2008 population survey.

The LDP has incumbents in both districts. In the first, Ishiba Shigeru, agriculture minister in the Aso cabinet, defense minister in the Fukuda cabinet, and contender for the premiership in last year's LDP presidential election, faces Okuda Yasuaki, a onetime secretary of Ishiba's and former Tottori prefectural assemblyman. Given Ishiba's past margins of victory, Okuda will have a hard time unseating his former boss.

In the second district, however, the race is more uncertain. LDP incumbent Akazawa Ryosei won in 2005 by defeating independent Kawakami Yoshihiro, who won as an independent in 2003, joined the LDP, then left again in 2005 as a postal rebel. Kawakami then joined the DPJ and won a seat in the upper house. The DPJ candidate this year is Yuhara Shunji, a four-time prefectural assembly member and, as his website makes clear, a farmer. The combined vote of Kawakami and then-DPJ candidate Yamauchi Osamu vastly outnumbered Akazawa's. The question is whether Yuhara can win both candidates' votes this year.

The DPJ could win one of two seats in Tottori.

Shimane

Shimane, also with only two seats, is the second least populous prefecture in Japan, coming out just ahead of Tottori with 725,000 people.

Hosoda Hiroyuki (first district), the LDP's secretary-general, won sizable margins in 2003 and 2005, and faces a new challenger, DPJ candidate Komuro Hisaaki, a former Shimane assemblyman. Hosoda will be reelected easily, but it does bear mentioning the presence of prefectural assembly members among DPJ candidates, especially in this part of the country, which could make the DPJ more competitive in years to come.

In the second district, the LDP's Takeshita Wataru faces the PNP's Kamei Hisaoki, the PNP's secretary general. Kamei, one of 2005's postal rebels, previously represented Shimane's third district, which no longer exists. Takeshita, the brother of Takeshita Noboru, defeated Kamei by more than 55,o00 votes in 2005 — and if Kamei's and then-DPJ candidate Komuro's votes were totaled, Takeshita won by 20,000 votes, with the JCP's receving more than 10,000. Given the surprising victory of Kamei's daughter Akiko in the 2007 upper house election, however, Kamei may be able to win. The JCP is not fielding a candidate, and Kamei has the backing of the other opposition parties.

Okayama

Okayama has five districts, making it the block's second largest prefecture behind Hiroshima. Amazingly, the DPJ's position in Okayama actually improved from 2003 to 2005, as two DPJ candidates won in 2005 while none won in 2005.

Tsumura Keisuke (second district) first ran in 2003 when he finished within 10,000 votes of the LDP incumbent Kumashiro Akihiro and won a PR seat. Kumashiro voted against postal privatization in 2005, but he did not run in the district, resulting in a head-to-head battle between Tsumura and Hagiwara Seiji, which Tsumura won by 2,000 votes. This time, however, the field is divided. Tsumura faces LDP candidate Hagiwara, PNP candidate Akamatsu Kazutaka, and Kumashiro, running as an independent. This is the only district in the country where PNP and DPJ candidates will go head to head. Tsumura probably has the upper hand on the basis of his incumbency and the DPJ's national strength, but it should be a close election regardless.

Okayama's fourth district, once the district of the late Hashimoto Ryutaro, is now represented by the DPJ's Yunoki Michiyoshi, who won the seat by 6,000 votes in 2005 over this year's LDP candidate Hashimoto Gaku, second son of the late prime minister. Having won in 2005 despite the Koizumi landslide, Yunoki should be safe this year.

The LDP should be safe in the first district, where Aisawa Ichiro faces DPJ challenger Takai Takashi, a former internal affairs ministry official. Aisawa doubled up the DPJ candidate in 2005, and should emerge victorious again.

The LDP's situation in the fifth district is more uncertain: Murata Yoshitaka, the winner in 2005, defeated DPJ candidate Hanasaki Hiroki, by roughly 50,000 votes, but due to the LDP's Costa Rica system will be running as a PR candidate. In his place the LDP is running Kato Katsunobu, who won PR seats in 2003 and 2005. The substitution of Kato for Murata could swing the election to Hanasaki.

Finally, in the third district, Hiranuma Takeo, leading postal rebel who is hoping to build a conservative "third pole" in the political system, is running for reelection in a field with the LDP's Abe Toshiko, who he defeated by 40,000 votes in 2005, and the DPJ's Nishimura Keito. It is likely, however, that the field will split as it did in 2005, perhaps with Nishimura finishing in second ahead of Abe.

The DPJ could win three of five seats in Okayama.

Hiroshima

Hiroshima, with seven districts, is the largest prefecture in the block. The LDP won six of seven seats in 2005 and 2003; in 2005, the one non-LDP seat was won by the PNP.

Accordingly, Kamei Shizuka (sixth district), the head of the PNP, should win reelection easily.

The DPJ's best chances to pick up seats are in the second district, where Matsumoto Daisuke, winner in 2003, should be able to reclaim the district from the LDP's Hiraguchi Hiroshi, helped by the absence of a JCP candidate (Matsumoto lost by 17,000 votes and won a PR seat); and the fifth district, where the LDP's Terada Minoru, who first won the seat in 2003, faces the DPJ's Mitani Mitsuo for the third time. Mitani, a former finance ministry official, lost by 6,000 votes in both 2003 and 2005, winning a PR seat in 2005.

Safe LDP incumbents include Kishida Fumio (first district), facing the DPJ's Sugekawa Hiroshi for the second time, and Nakagawa Hidenao (fourth district), who faces the DPJ's Soramoto Seiki for the third time.

Miyazawa Yoichi (seventh district), son of the late Miyazawa Kiichi, may be vulnerable: for the third time he faces the DPJ's Wada Takashi, a former finance ministry official, who lost by 18,000 votes to Miyazawa in 2003 and 2005, winning a PR seat in 2003. With the JCP, which received 14,000 votes in the district in 2005, not running a candidate, Wada could defeat Miyazawa.

The LDP may also be vulnerable in the fifth district, another district where a victorious incumbent from 2005 will run as a PR candidate due to the Costa Rica system. LDP candidate Masaharu Yoshitake last won the seat in 2003, when he defeated an SDPJ candidate by more than 50,000 votes. This time, however, he faces former bureaucrat Hashimoto Hiroaki, who placed second in a field that also included an independent who received nearly 32,000 votes and an SDPJ candidate who received 26,000 votes, as well as a JCP candidate and another independent who combined for more than 10,000 votes. Hashimoto should win the seat.

In Hiroshima, the DPJ should win four, the LDP two, and the PNP one.

Yamaguchi

Finally, in Yamaguchi, the LDP won all four seats in 2005, three of four in 2003, and the prefecture's upper house seat in 2007. It did win back one seat in a by-election in 2008.

The LDP has strong incumbents in former Foreign Minister Komura Masahiko (first district); Chief Cabinet Secretary Kawamura Takeo (third district); and former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo (fourth district).

The DPJ lost the second district in 2005, but Hiraoka Hideo, who won the seat in 2000 and 2003 before losing by 1,000 votes in 2005 and settling for a PR seat, won it back in the 2008 by-election to replace 2005 winner Fukuda Yoshihiko, who was elected mayor of Iwakuni. Hiraoka should be reelected comfortably, keeping the status quo in place in Yamaguchi.

Proportional representation

Once again using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's latest polling data, and turnout data from 2005, the best the DPJ can do is six seats to the LDP's three, with the PNP and Komeito each taking one. Given that it is unlikely that the DPJ will poll as strongly in PR voting in Chugoku as it will elsewhere, five seats is probably more likely, perhaps with Komeito gaining a seat in the process. A more likely outcome is therefore DPJ five, LDP three, Komeito two, PNP one.

Accordingly, the DPJ can win fourteen seats in Chugoku, the LDP eleven, the PNP three, Komeito two, and independent Hiranuma Takeo one.

Hokuriku-Shinetsu, favorable prospects for the DPJ

This is the sixth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, and here.

The Hokuriku-Shinetsu region, comprised of Niigata, Toyama, Ishikawa, Fukui, and Nagano prefectures, has twenty single-member districts and eleven proportional representation seats.

In 2005, opposition parties took seven SMDs and five proportional representation seats; the LDP and Komeito combined for thirteen SMDs and six PR seats, results that were identical to the 2003 election. This result suggests that the region was largely immune to the 2005 Koizumi boom, whle being relatively skeptical about the DPJ. Will it be more susceptible to a DPJ boom this year?

Niigata

Niigata has six SMDs, giving it the most seats in the block's prefectures. The DPJ has done better than the LDP in Niigata in the past two elections, winning three seats to the LDP's two.

Its three incumbents — Nishimura Chinami, who is facing Yoshida Rokuzaemon, the LDP incumbent she defeated to first win the seat in 2003, in the first district; Kikuta Makiko, who for the second time will face Kurihara Yoji, the son of the LDP member she defeated to win the fourth district in 2003; and Tsutsui Nobutaka, who will face the LDP's Takatori Shuichi for the third time — ought to be safe. The DPJ has gained another incumbent in Tanaka Makiko, who won the fifth district as an independent in 2003 and 2005 and should be reelected easily this year. Tanaka had already been allied with the DPJ and had already received the party's endorsement, so her joining the party is a formality as far as her status as a candidate is concerned. (The DPJ also recovers a much-needed seat in the upper house as Tanaka's husband Naoki will also be joining the DPJ.)

In the remaining two seats, the LDP is vulnerable. The DPJ stands a good chance of winning in the second district, where DPJ candidate Washio Eiichiro, who lost by 12,000 votes and came away with a PR seat in 2005, once again faces LDP candidate Kondo Motohiko. The question, however, is whether the SDPJ, fielding candidate Yoneyama Noboru, will play the spoiler in the race. But Washio should benefit from the tailwind in the DPJ's favor, and it is unclear whether the SDPJ enjoys much support in the district (based on local election results).

The DPJ will have a harder time in the third district, where Inaba Yamato, a five-term incumbent, will face DPJ candidate Kuroiwa Takahiro. Kuroiwa is a strong challenger, a former upper house member from Niigata who lost in 2007 precisely as a result of infighting between the DPJ and the SDPJ in Niigata. Inaba won by approximately 38,000 votes in the past two elections, but against an experienced challenger like Kuroiwa he may be vulnerable. Kuroiwa should benefit from having the field to himself, no JCP candidate, no SDPJ candidate. In 2005, with SDPJ, PNP, and JCP candidates in the district, the three opposition candidates roughly equaled Inaba.

The DPJ could win all six districts in Niigata.

Toyama

In Toyama in 2003, the LDP took two seats and the PNP's Watanuki Tamisuke won the third district by 20,000 votes despite sharing the field with candidates from the LDP, DPJ, SDPJ, and JCP. Watanuki will not be running in the district this year, and will instead be running solely as a PR candidate. With the non-LDP slot open, the DPJ, the SDPJ, and the PNP will be backing independent Aimoto Yoshihiko, a longtime announcer at Kitanihon Broadcasting, against the LDP's Tachibana Keiichiro, former mayor of Takaoka city. Aimoto should win due to wider name recognition and the national mood. Your Party is running a candidate in this district — former Toyama assemblyman Shibata Takumi — but it remains to be seen whether YP will be a factor in this or any race.

The LDP should win the second district easily: incumbent Miyakoshi Mitsuhiro has won comfortably over fields divided among DPJ, SDPJ, and JCP candidates in the past two elections, but even with the opposition uniting behind the SDPJ's Fujii Soichi, opposition candidates combined in recent elections have barely surpassed 50,000 votes, compared with Miyakosho's totals in the 90,000s.

The LDP could, however, be upset in the first district, where incumbent Nagase Jinen faces the DPJ's Murai Muneaki. Murai ran in both 2003 and 2005, and won PR seats both times. In 2005 Murai narrowed Nagase's margin of victory from 25,000 to just under 19,000 votes, suggesting that Murai might be able to unseat six-time incumbent Nagase. The JCP, which has received roughly 10,000 votes in previous elections, could be a factor in a close race.

The DPJ could win two of Toyama's three seats.

Ishikawa

Ishikawa also has three SMDs. The LDP won all three in 2005, and two of three in 2003.

The DPJ will likely retake the first district, which it lost in 2005: Okuda Ken, the loser in 2005, narrowly defeated the LDP's Hase Hiroshi to win the seat in 2003, after narrowly losing to Hase in 2000. Okuda first won the seat in a 1998 by-election following his father's death. He should benefit from this year's DPJ boom.

The DPJ candidates in the second and third are weaker, however, and the LDP incumbents stronger: former Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro is the incumbent in the second district, and in the third district LDP incumbent Kitamura Shigeo, who first won the seat in 2005, defends a seat that had previously been held by longtime LDP politician Kawara Tsutomu.

Fukui

The LDP also won all three seats in Fukui in 2005 and 2003.

In this election, however, the DPJ could win two out of three seats. The LDP's incumbent in the second district, Yamamoto Taku, is probably safe, but in the first district the LDP's Inada Tomomi, elected for the first time in 2005 thanks to a non-LDP vote divided between the DPJ's Sasaki Ryuzo and the former LDP candidate Matsumiya Isao. Despite the divided vote, Sasaki still lost by only 400 votes. This time Matsumiya will be running in the third district as a DPJ candidate against the LDP's Takagi Tsuyoshi, who has won the past three elections handily. Both Sasaki and Matsumiya may win this time around.

Nagano

In the past two elections the LDP has won three seats in Nagano and the DPJ two.

DPJ incumbents Hata Tsutomu (third district) and Shimojo Mitsu (second district) should win comfortably. The DPJ's best chance for picking up a seat is in the first district, where its candidate Shinohara Takashi will try for the third time to unseat LDP incumbent Kosaka Kenji. Shinohara has won PR seats in the past two elections, losing by 7,000 votes in 2003 and 19,000 votes in 2005. The JCP, whose candidates have received more than 30,000 votes in the past two elections, could make a difference in a close race in the first, but with the national mood it may not be that close.

In the final two districts, the LDP will likely hold in the fifth district, where its incumbent, Miyashita Ichiro, has never faced a serious challenge. He will be helped this time because both the DPJ and the SDPJ will both be running candidates, in addition to a JCP candidate. In the fourth district, the LDP incumbent Goto Shigeyuki could have been defeated in 2003 but both the DPJ and the SDPJ fielded candidates, clearing the way for Goto's reelection. This time the DPJ's Yazaki Koji, a former Mainichi journalist, will share the field with only the JCP's Ueda Hideaki.

The DPJ could win four of five districts in Nagano.

Proportional representation

Using the d'Hondt method simulator, Yomiuri's poll numbers, and turnout data from 2005, it appears that should the DPJ receive in Hokuriku Shinetsu what it is polling nationally it can win six seats, which, combined with the one seat the PNP should win in the block would yield seven for the DPJ and its likely coalition, while limiting the LDP to four and stripping Komeito of its seat.

All told, the DPJ could win twenty seats in the block, with its partner the PNP winning one and an opposition-backed independent's winning one, exceeding the LDP-Komeito coalition's nineteen seats from 2005. The LDP, meanwhile, could be limited to nine seats in the block.

The DPJ and PNP draw closer

Pushing the DPJ to the headlines again for the first time since Prime Minister Fukuda resigned at the start of September, the Democratic Party of Japan and the People's New Party are reportedly close to an agreement to merge. Ozawa Ichiro met with his counterpart Watanuki Tamisuke Tuesday to discuss a merger, and indicated to Mr. Watanuki that he is willing to include a plank in the DPJ manifesto calling for a freeze in the planned sale of government-held shares of the composite companies of the Japan Post group.

The PNP, you may recall, is a product of the 2005 postal reform battle, created when Koizumi Junichiro ousted the postal rebels and dispatched his "assassins" to deprive them of their seats in the 2005 general election, with only some success.

The party has been considerably less visible in the years following its creation, although as a partner of the DPJ its four upper house members are critical to maintaining the opposition's control of the upper house.

Sankei reports that the DPJ executives have conferred and have officially proposed a union to the microparty, which is favorably disposed to the idea. It is less clear what DPJ backbenchers and the party rank-and-file think, but it looks like the DPJ's latest merger is a done deal. (One merger closer to a two-party system?) (This is also yet another blow to Hiranuma Takeo's plans for a new conservative party, the chimera that had everyone talks just under a year ago. The impending election of Aso Taro will be another.)

I can think of a number of theories for why Mr. Ozawa opted to do this, and opted to do this now.

One, this has proved a good way to put the DPJ back in the headlines, although the financial crisis has effectively taken pushed the LDP and the DPJ aside for the time being.

Two, it enables Mr. Ozawa to cement his populist credentials among elderly, rural voters. A glance at the PNP's policy statements shows a party very much in tune with Mr. Ozawa's approach of the past several years: criticism of "market fundamentalism" and an economy in which the strong devour the weak, criticism of the Koizumi theatrical politics that led to the party's creation in the first place, and support for all manner of traditional LDP supporters (farmers, small- and mid-sized businesses, etc.). With Aso Taro's copying Ozawa Ichiro's approach, Mr. Ozawa may be upping his commitment to a populist pitch to voters in stagnant rural districts to head off Mr. Aso before he takes over officially (as seems certain).

A third, related theory is that Mr. Ozawa did this because he could. I can imagine that the DPJ's young turks are dreading having to defend this alliance to their urban constituents, seeing as how this is literally a merger with the newly former LDP. But after having effectively stared down all potential rivals, Mr. Ozawa may have calculated — correctly in my view — that he can get away with quite a lot; the young turks will not defect.

Fourth, and again related to DPJ internal dynamics, Mr. Ozawa may perceive this as a way to bolster his position in the party. The PNP may not be numerous, but they bring Mr. Ozawa some reinforcements in his battle to make the case that his approach to the next general election is correct, that the election will be won or lost in constituencies that have long supported the LDP.

Lastly, Mr. Ozawa may actually share the PNP's beliefs.

These theories are not mutually exclusive, and not one explanation may be correct. And the merger may ultimately not make a difference in the general election, seeing as how it merely reinforces Mr. Ozawa's approach. It does make clear, however, that Japan has come a long way from September 2005. Structural reform is dead. If Mr. Aso is elected, the LDP and the DPJ will be battling over who can promise the more convincing plan to revitalize rural areas, presumably through infusions of public funds.

Realignment scenarios

After months of talking about forming a new party, Hiranuma Takeo, a leading LDP postal rebel who spurned LDP efforts to bring him back into the party during the Abe era, may finally be taking steps to create a new conservative party that may yet be a fly in the LDP's ointment.

Mr. Hiranuma has reportedly been in talks with other former LDP members — "independent conservatives" — to form a new study group. Partners in this endeavor include Watanuki Tamisuke, leader of the PNP; Kamei Shizuka, the PNP's secretary-general; Suzuki Muneo, the disgraced (and indicted) former LDP member, partner-in-corruption of the late Matsuoka Toshikatsu, and representative of his own Hokkaido-based New Party Big Earth; and Nakamura Kishiro, construction minister in the Miyazawa cabinet who was subsequently left the LDP, was arrested and charged with influence peddling in 1994, continued to win elections and serve as an independent HR member until 2003, when the Supreme Court rejected his final appeal and promptly stripped him of his seat and sent him to prison until 2004 when he was paroled (he won his seat back in the 2005 election).

These LDP castaways agreed to take a confrontational stance towards the "Fukuda cabinet's policy line," suggesting that this PNP+ grouping could be the beginning of Mr. Hiranuma's new party, throwing a wrinkle into a political realignment.

Or will it? While Mr. Hiranuma clearly has links to Nakagawa Shoichi and other conservative ideologues in the LDP, it is not at all clear that Mr. Hiranuma will be able to entice them to join his party, considering the ragtag group he has assembled around him. That won't stop the DPJ from looking to bolster Mr. Hiranuma's party in the hope that it will break the LDP. On Monday, Hatoyama Yukio, the DPJ's secretary-general, greeted the news of Mr. Hiranuma's group by calling for cooperation. I hope cooperation goes no further. For all Mr. Hiranuma's anti-LDP posturing, I suspect that his tune would change were Aso Taro elected as leader, suggesting that this gambit may be less an effort to create a third pole in the political system than to improve the terms for Mr. Hiranuma's eventual reunion with the LDP. Ibuki Bunmei, LDP secretary-general, has already come calling.

Mr. Hiranuma cannot possibly think that his party could become a significant third force in Japanese politics. Considering that it would be little different from the PNP, which has elected a grand total of eight representatives (four HR, four HC), why should anyone expect the Hiranuma new party to be anything but a guppy? Obviously that would change if the LDP's conservative wing were to leave the party en masse and join with Mr. Hiranuma, but at that point it would no longer be the Hiranuma new party but the Hiranuma-Abe-Nakagawa-Aso true conservative party, with the "H" increasingly pushed to the side.

The Japanese political system might have room for a third, swing party between two big parties, but I doubt that the swing party will have the ideological coloration of the Hiranuma new party.

The prospect of a Koizumi new party remains, to me, the more intriguing possibility. An article in the June issue of Bungei Shunjyu suggests (in part one) that Mr. Koizumi views the present crisis — a natural outgrowth of his ransacking of the LDP — as an opportunity to build a new political system, with Koike Yuriko acting as his stalking horse.

Another scenario discussed in the latter portion of the article is a bid by Ozawa Ichiro to pry the LDP's liberals away, similar to his failed attempt in 1994 to pry Watanabe Michio and his followers away from the LDP by promising Mr. Watanabe the premiership. The target for Mr. Ozawa's efforts supposedly is Kato Koichi, the once-promising liberal, although it is unlikely that the has-been Mr. Kato could bring significant numbers of LDP members with him.

Nevertheless, if the conservatives retake control of the LDP under Mr. Aso and reunite with Mr. Hiranuma, that alliance could prove fatal for the LDP, as the readmission of Mr. Hiranuma and the other postal rebels could lead Mr. Koizumi and his followers out of the party, perhaps prompting liberals unconnected to Mr. Koizumi to leave too and drift towards the DPJ.

But I still suspect that nothing will happen until after the next general election. Until an election is held, no group knows just how valuable its hand is. The size of the LDP's majority — if it retains a majority — will make all the difference when it comes to potential separatists considering whether to split (the same logic applies to Komeito's partnership with the LDP). The larger the majority, the stronger the LDP will be respective to potential splinter groups. Should the DPJ have a strong showing that puts it within striking distance of a majority, however, there will be a brutal war for the loyalty of possible defectors and Komeito (the latter especially in the event that the governing coalition retains a majority, but not the LDP independently).

Campaigning starts in earnest

With the campaign (unofficially) underway — thank you, public elections law — we are now in for a month of maneuvering and campaigning as government and opposition camps push for the seats necessary for an Upper House majority. Yomiuri's latest poll showed the DPJ enjoying a three-point edge over the LDP in proportional representation (25% to 22%), and the LDP enjoying a narrower edge in electoral districts (24.2% to 22.8%). It also echoed the cabinet's dismal support rate (32% in favor, 53.9% disfavor) found in other polls — and confirmed that Ozawa is right to emphasize that this will be the pensions election.

68.8% of respondents said that pensions are the most important issue in the election, followed distantly by education (40.8%), "politics and money" (39.0%), economic growth (31.4%), and beyond that in the twenties social inequality, administrative reform, foreign and security policy, and constitution revision. Keep in mind, of the respondents to this poll, a plurality support the LDP (32.1%), followed by floating voters (31.8%) and the DPJ (21.3).

And yet at the same time the governing coalition has received its first bit of good news in weeks, with two members of Tanaka Yasuo's Shintō Nihon, Upper House member Arai Hiroyuki and Lower House member Taki Makoto, announcing their decision to leave the party to become independents. Meanwhile, Matsushita Shinpei, a DPJ-aligned independent from Miyazaki in the Upper House, announced that he would break his cooperation with the DPJ. Both Matsushita and Arai are former LDP members, and while neither has signaled that they will return to the party, the government will undoubtedly push hard for their support, formally or informally. As Jun Okumura argues, given the probability of Arai's supporting the government, this news lowers the threshhold for the governing coalition by at least one seat. (Jun's thoughts on whether the Kokumin Shintō will support the government, despite the party's leadership nixing the idea, are especially worth reading.)

All of which goes to show that the LDP, while bruised, is still in the fight.

Meanwhile, the Economist has some speculation as to what will happen should Prime Minister Abe resign following a defeat (which is by no means guaranteed), suggesting that a resignation following a narrow loss could lead to an orderly election fight among Aso, Tanigaki, and possibly a challenger from the younger generation.

A bigger loss could result in a caretaker government. And most unlikely, the election could spark a political realignment one way or another, with parties breaking and reemerging along policy or generational lines (an outcome that probably made more sense during the Koizumi years than today). I suspect the latter is grounded more in wishful thinking — of both the Economist and of certain Japanese politicians — than in a clear assessment of probabilities. In particular, if this election is in fact Ozawa's last stand, the DPJ might emerge from the election a more attractive force for younger politicians.

That is a good reminder of how Japanese politics is changing, slowly. Regardless of the election results, with each election, more of the leftovers from the 1955 system are chased out of power. With each round of elections, young, policy-oriented politicians find themselves in ever more important positions (albeit not the party leadership, after the Maehara debacle). But how long can Japan wait for its younger generation of leaders to rise to the top naturally?

The caudillo candidate

Mainichi has published an account of an interview with Alberto Fujimori, former president of Peru now under house arrest in Santiago, Chile and recently named to Kokumin Shinto's proportional representation list.

In it, Fujimori promises to return to Peru, and notes that running for office in Japan does not mean the end of his political career in Peru.

My favorite line from the article, though, is the following: "Highlighting rapprochements with neighbors Ecuador and Chile, and the restoration of public order as the achievements from his time as president, he stated, 'As a member of the House of Councillors, I want to tackle foreign policy and public order problems.'"

I'm sure Vladimiro Montesinos can give Mr. Fujimori some creative ideas on how to solve Japan's "public order problems."

Then again, Japan might be in need for some serious Fujishock.

In any case, it is probably a mistake to attribute too much significance to Fujimori's candidacy, which says more about the troglodytic tendencies of some members of Kokumin Shinto than any particular fault of the Japanese people. With luck, the Japanese people will ensure that this washed-up tin pot dictator continues to stroll the grounds of his St. Helena in Santiago, occasionally sending video messages to his supporters in Peru promising a return.

(Incidentally, for those interested in Fujimori's rise to power in Peru, he plays a significant role in Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa's A Fish in the Water, a memoir of Vargas Llosa's 1990 presidential run, the year in which Fujimori won as a dark horse candidate.)

(And those with a more academic interest in Nikkeijin would do well to read this post at Frog in a Well.)